President Trump’s close alliance with FIFA chief Gianni Infantino and his ceremonial role presenting the July 19 final trophy position one high-profile appearance as the market favorite at 46 percent implied probability. Recent reports confirm he will skip the U.S. opener against Paraguay on June 12 in Los Angeles, with Paraguay’s president attending instead, tempering expectations for multiple games amid presidential scheduling and security demands. Traders see limited but symbolic involvement—potentially the final or a marquee U.S. match—supported by the White House task force and Infantino’s public praise, while zero attendance remains a distant 4.3 percent outcome given the host-nation optics. Upcoming draw and early-round developments could shift the 3+ or 2-match scenarios if additional dates surface.