Wilton Simpson officially launches his campaign for a second term as Florida Agriculture Commissioner with Trump’s endorsement

Simpson’s formal announcement to seek reelection, backed by President Trump and Florida GOP leaders, confirmed his gubernatorial withdrawal and solidified his market.

Continued negative media coverage of Fishback’s past allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a minor and ongoing harassment claims resurfaces, reinforcing doubts about

Continued negative media coverage of Fishback’s past allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a minor and ongoing harassment claims resurfaces, reinforcing doubts about his candidacy

Poll shows Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers in general election matchups, highlighting his electability and strengthening market confidence

Byron Donalds drops to 84%7%

Poll shows Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers in general election matchups, highlighting his electability and strengthening market confidence

Collins publicly criticizes GOP front-runner Byron Donalds and confirms he is not dropping out

Jay Collins rises to 5%4%

Collins’ renewed campaign vigor and attacks on Donalds briefly raised his market standing.

John Morgan publicly states he will not run for Florida governor, naming Wilton Simpson as his preferred candidate

Though Morgan endorsed Simpson as a favored candidate, Simpson’s commitment to reelection as Agriculture Commissioner kept his gubernatorial chances at zero in the market.

Viral incident where Fishback tells a Black man he “should be lynched” during a public confrontation, sparking outrage and damaging his public image

James Fishback drops to 8%6%

Viral incident where Fishback tells a Black man he “should be lynched” during a public confrontation, sparking outrage and damaging his public image

Byron Donalds reports raising $22.2 million in Q1 2026, continuing his fundraising dominance and campaign momentum

Byron Donalds jumps to 91%8%

Byron Donalds reports raising $22.2 million in Q1 2026, continuing his fundraising dominance and campaign momentum

Emerson College poll shows Casey DeSantis support at a low 7% among Republican likely voters, with Byron Donalds leading at 44% backed by Trump

Casey DeSantis dips to 1%2%

This poll confirmed Casey's diminished viability, cementing her near-zero market

Emerson College poll confirms Donalds leading GOP primary with 46% support, including majority support among voters over 60, reinforcing his strong position

Byron Donalds rises to 83%1%

Emerson College poll confirms Donalds leading GOP primary with 46% support, including majority support among voters over 60, reinforcing his strong position

Jay Collins discusses campaign priorities and remains in race amid crowded GOP field

Jay Collins rises to 6%3%

Collins’ media appearances and campaign messaging provided a slight boost in market confidence.

Fishback claims Waffle House banned him from all Florida locations after initially receiving permission to campaign there, a public setback for his grassroots outreach efforts

James Fishback dips to 8%3%

Fishback claims Waffle House banned him from all Florida locations after initially receiving permission to campaign there, a public setback for his grassroots outreach efforts

Matt Gaetz speaks at CPAC 2026 but does not announce a run for Florida governor

Gaetz’s public political presence without a gubernatorial campaign announcement confirmed no momentum in the race, maintaining his zero

Polling shows Fishback trailing far behind Donalds with only 4% support overall but strong among young voters, highlighting limited broad appeal

James Fishback drops to 8%6%

Polling shows Fishback trailing far behind Donalds with only 4% support overall but strong among young voters, highlighting limited broad appeal

Fishback announces unconventional campaign tactic using Tinder to reach young women voters, generating mixed reactions and some skepticism about campaign strategy

James Fishback rises to 14%2%

Fishback announces unconventional campaign tactic using Tinder to reach young women voters, generating mixed reactions and some skepticism about campaign strategy

Scandal involving DeSantis aide Christina Pushaw supporting rival candidate James Fishback backfires, exposing internal DeSantis campaign disarray and weakening Casey DeSantis's prospects

Casey DeSantis drops to 2%10%

This controversy highlighted factional struggles and damaged Casey's standing in the race.

Market dip to 2% after no DeSantis endorsement and Trump’s backing of Donalds solidifies

Jay Collins drops to 2%6%

Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and DeSantis’ non-endorsement likely caused market to discount Collins’ chances.

Collins gains modest boost after announcement, with DeSantis calling him a “good guy” but withholding endorsement

Jay Collins rises to 8%4%

DeSantis’ positive remarks without endorsement created cautious optimism for Collins.

Jay Collins officially announces run for Florida governor, entering GOP primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds

Jay Collins jumps to 9%7%

Collins’ formal campaign launch increased market interest, but facing Trump-backed Donalds limited upside.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor, entering the GOP primary and introducing a notable challenger to Donalds

Byron Donalds dips to 79%4%

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor, entering the GOP primary and introducing a notable challenger to Donalds

Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor, entering the crowded GOP primary field

Casey DeSantis jumps to 12%5%

Collins's entry added competition to the field, complicating Casey DeSantis's potential path and contributing to

Fishback publicly praises far-right figure Nick Fuentes and his followers, drawing criticism and controversy that likely alienated moderate GOP voters

James Fishback drops to 13%6%

Fishback publicly praises far-right figure Nick Fuentes and his followers, drawing criticism and controversy that likely alienated moderate GOP voters

Poll shows Donalds leading GOP primary with 47% support, surging to 76% when Trump's endorsement is known, leaving rivals far behind and confirming his frontrunner status

Byron Donalds rises to 82%3%

Poll shows Donalds leading GOP primary with 47% support, surging to 76% when Trump's endorsement is known, leaving rivals far behind and confirming his frontrunner status

Byron Donalds announces raising $45 million in 2025, shattering Florida gubernatorial fundraising records and solidifying his dominant position

Byron Donalds rises to 83%4%

Byron Donalds announces raising $45 million in 2025, shattering Florida gubernatorial fundraising records and solidifying his dominant position

Governor Ron DeSantis announces the "Floridians First" 2026-2027 budget, emphasizing fiscal discipline and tax relief, reinforcing the DeSantis administration's strong governance image

Casey DeSantis plunges to 11%30%

Despite positive governance news, Casey's

Donalds campaign reports raising over $40 million since February 2025, setting fundraising records and demonstrating strong financial backing

Byron Donalds rises to 83%4%

Donalds campaign reports raising over $40 million since February 2025, setting fundraising records and demonstrating strong financial backing

Fishback gains brief attention after appearing on Tucker Carlson’s podcast, receiving endorsement and praise for his anti-establishment rhetoric, causing a temporary

James Fishback jumps to 27%14%

Fishback gains brief attention after appearing on Tucker Carlson’s podcast, receiving endorsement and praise for his anti-establishment rhetoric, causing a temporary

Fundraising report reveals Fishback raised only $950 in first campaign month, drawing widespread mockery and signaling weak campaign infrastructure

James Fishback plunges to 13%30%

Fundraising report reveals Fishback raised only $950 in first campaign month, drawing widespread mockery and signaling weak campaign infrastructure

Market trough at 2% coincides with no major news; possible initial skepticism about Collins’ viability in crowded GOP primary

Jay Collins plunges to 2%40%

No specific news found; likely market reaction to crowded field and Trump endorsement of rival Byron Donalds.

Political insiders highlight Simpson’s absence from the governor’s race due to lack of Trump’s endorsement

Reports emphasized that without Donald Trump’s blessing and campaign support, Simpson’s gubernatorial prospects were unviable, reinforcing the market’s low valuation of his chances.

Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner instead of running for governor

Wilton Simpson plunges to 1%41%

Simpson officially filed for reelection as Agriculture Commissioner, signaling he would not pursue the gubernatorial race, which caused a dramatic drop in his market.

Jay Collins appointed Florida Lieutenant Governor, raising profile ahead of 2026 governor race

Jay Collins jumps to 50%8%

Collins was named lieutenant governor by Gov. Ron DeSantis, boosting his visibility and market optimism about his gubernatorial prospects.

University of North Florida poll shows Casey DeSantis as early favorite for Florida governor with 22% support, ahead of other Republicans like Byron Donalds at 9%

This early poll boosted market confidence in Casey DeSantis's chances as a potential candidate.

James Fishback announces GOP primary challenge to Donalds, attacking him as a "slave to donors," but Donalds' campaign quickly dismisses the attacks, reinforcing Donalds'

Byron Donalds jumps to 79%9%

James Fishback announces GOP primary challenge to Donalds, attacking him as a "slave to donors," but Donalds' campaign quickly dismisses the attacks, reinforcing Donalds' frontrunner status

James Fishback officially announces candidacy for Florida governor, positioning himself as a challenger to Trump-backed frontrunner Byron Donalds with a populist, anti-immigration

James Fishback officially announces candidacy for Florida governor, positioning himself as a challenger to Trump-backed frontrunner Byron Donalds with a populist, anti-immigration platform

Special election held to fill Matt Gaetz’s vacated congressional seat, confirming his permanent departure from elected office

Matt Gaetz dips to 0%1%

The special election to replace Gaetz confirmed he was not running for office again soon, solidifying the market’s view that he would not win the gubernatorial primary.

Byron Donalds officially announces his candidacy for Florida Governor on Fox News, becoming the first Republican to enter the race and capitalizing on Trump's endorsement

Byron Donalds jumps to 70%9%

Byron Donalds officially announces his candidacy for Florida Governor on Fox News, becoming the first Republican to enter the race and capitalizing on Trump's endorsement

President Donald Trump endorses Byron Donalds for Florida Governor, boosting his profile and signaling strong support from a major GOP influencer

Byron Donalds jumps to 61%13%

President Donald Trump endorses Byron Donalds for Florida Governor, boosting his profile and signaling strong support from a major GOP influencer

Florida Bar closes ethics case against Matt Gaetz, stating statutory rape allegations do not affect his law practice

While the Florida Bar’s decision cleared Gaetz professionally, it did not revive his gubernatorial chances, keeping the market

Matt Gaetz withdraws his nomination for U.S. attorney general and announces he will not return to Congress

Matt Gaetz drops to 1%5%

Gaetz’s withdrawal from the AG nomination and decision not to reclaim his House seat further reduced his political prospects, causing another steep

Matt Gaetz resigns from U.S. House of Representatives after being nominated for U.S. attorney general by President-elect Donald Trump

Matt Gaetz plunges to 6%35%

Gaetz’s resignation marked his exit from Congress and created uncertainty about his political future, triggering a sharp drop in market confidence.