Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, reflecting stalled direct negotiations after the mid-April Islamabad talks collapsed without agreement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear enrichment, or sanctions relief. Iran's April 27 proposal to prioritize reopening the strait while delaying nuclear discussions prompted US review but no confirmed follow-up session, as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi blamed Washington during his April 28 Moscow visit and Tehran reiterated no meetings are planned. Heightened rhetoric, fragile ceasefire extensions, and naval posturing sustain the impasse, with traders discounting near-term bilateral diplomacy absent official announcements or breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNext US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
No Meeting before May 11 85%
May 10 3.1%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,448,446 Vol.
$1,448,446 Vol.
10 may 2026
April 30
<1%
May 1
<1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
2%
May 6
1%
May 7
1%
May 8
1%
May 9
2%
May 10
3%
No Meeting before May 11
85%
No Meeting before May 11 85%
May 10 3.1%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,448,446 Vol.
$1,448,446 Vol.
10 may 2026
April 30
$87,228 Vol.
<1%
May 1
$36,801 Vol.
<1%
May 2
$32,399 Vol.
1%
May 3
$27,403 Vol.
1%
May 4
$34,435 Vol.
1%
May 5
$32,941 Vol.
2%
May 6
$30,284 Vol.
1%
May 7
$29,501 Vol.
1%
May 8
$25,769 Vol.
1%
May 9
$29,973 Vol.
2%
May 10
$46,389 Vol.
3%
No Meeting before May 11
$465,707 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, reflecting stalled direct negotiations after the mid-April Islamabad talks collapsed without agreement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear enrichment, or sanctions relief. Iran's April 27 proposal to prioritize reopening the strait while delaying nuclear discussions prompted US review but no confirmed follow-up session, as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi blamed Washington during his April 28 Moscow visit and Tehran reiterated no meetings are planned. Heightened rhetoric, fragile ceasefire extensions, and naval posturing sustain the impasse, with traders discounting near-term bilateral diplomacy absent official announcements or breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,448,446Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, reflecting stalled direct negotiations after the mid-April Islamabad talks collapsed without agreement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear enrichment, or sanctions relief. Iran's April 27 proposal to prioritize reopening the strait while delaying nuclear discussions prompted US review but no confirmed follow-up session, as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi blamed Washington during his April 28 Moscow visit and Tehran reiterated no meetings are planned. Heightened rhetoric, fragile ceasefire extensions, and naval posturing sustain the impasse, with traders discounting near-term bilateral diplomacy absent official announcements or breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,448,446Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices an 84.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, reflecting stalled direct negotiations after the mid-April Islamabad talks collapsed without agreement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, nuclear enrichment, or sanctions relief. Iran's April 27 proposal to prioritize reopening the strait while delaying nuclear discussions prompted US review but no confirmed follow-up session, as Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi blamed Washington during his April 28 Moscow visit and Tehran reiterated no meetings are planned. Heightened rhetoric, fragile ceasefire extensions, and naval posturing sustain the impasse, with traders discounting near-term bilateral diplomacy absent official announcements or breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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