Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter against expectations, has prompted Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, with other institutions projecting between 0.8% and 1.8%. Traders price the two leading Q2 ranges nearly even as high-frequency data show subdued consumption and industrial output amid USMCA review uncertainty and tariff pressures that weigh on investment and manufacturing. Modest support may come from resilient employment, lower policy rates at 6.5%, and potential nearshoring stabilization, yet broad-based weakness and external risks keep outcomes tightly contested ahead of the July 30 preliminary release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.5%+ 49%
1.5-2.0% 45%
0.5-1.0% 10%
<-0,5% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<-0,5%
-
-0.5-0.0%
45%
0.0-0.5%
42%
0.5-1.0%
27%
1.0-1.5%
50%
1.5-2.0%
45%
2.0-2.5%
40%
2.5%+
49%
2.5%+ 49%
1.5-2.0% 45%
0.5-1.0% 10%
<-0,5% 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<-0,5%
$34 Vol.
-
-0.5-0.0%
$54 Vol.
45%
0.0-0.5%
$223 Vol.
42%
0.5-1.0%
$70 Vol.
27%
1.0-1.5%
$32 Vol.
50%
1.5-2.0%
$30 Vol.
45%
2.0-2.5%
$51 Vol.
40%
2.5%+
$30 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter against expectations, has prompted Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, with other institutions projecting between 0.8% and 1.8%. Traders price the two leading Q2 ranges nearly even as high-frequency data show subdued consumption and industrial output amid USMCA review uncertainty and tariff pressures that weigh on investment and manufacturing. Modest support may come from resilient employment, lower policy rates at 6.5%, and potential nearshoring stabilization, yet broad-based weakness and external risks keep outcomes tightly contested ahead of the July 30 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volumen
$525Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter against expectations, has prompted Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, with other institutions projecting between 0.8% and 1.8%. Traders price the two leading Q2 ranges nearly even as high-frequency data show subdued consumption and industrial output amid USMCA review uncertainty and tariff pressures that weigh on investment and manufacturing. Modest support may come from resilient employment, lower policy rates at 6.5%, and potential nearshoring stabilization, yet broad-based weakness and external risks keep outcomes tightly contested ahead of the July 30 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$525Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weakness in Mexico’s first-quarter GDP, which contracted 0.6% quarter-over-quarter against expectations, has prompted Banxico to cut its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 1.1%, with other institutions projecting between 0.8% and 1.8%. Traders price the two leading Q2 ranges nearly even as high-frequency data show subdued consumption and industrial output amid USMCA review uncertainty and tariff pressures that weigh on investment and manufacturing. Modest support may come from resilient employment, lower policy rates at 6.5%, and potential nearshoring stabilization, yet broad-based weakness and external risks keep outcomes tightly contested ahead of the July 30 preliminary release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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