Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Middle East conflict have introduced energy price shocks that are pressuring UK inflation and consumer spending, creating substantial uncertainty around Q2 2026 GDP growth. April CPI eased to 2.8%, yet forecasts from the OECD and IMF have been lowered to around 0.8–0.9% for the full year amid higher energy costs and a loosening labor market with unemployment near 5%. Q1’s solid 0.6% expansion provides some momentum, but analysts highlight risks of subdued quarterly readings near 0.2–0.3% or potential contraction as base effects fade. These crosscurrents explain the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across bins, with traders weighing incoming data releases and Bank of England signals ahead of the Q2 outturn.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNegative 94%
0,0–0,1% 94%
1.0%+ 94%
0,6–0,7% 83%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 ago 2026
Negative
94%
0,0–0,1%
94%
0,2–0,3%
43%
0,4–0,5 %
44%
0,6–0,7%
83%
0,8–0,9%
-
1.0%+
94%
Negative 94%
0,0–0,1% 94%
1.0%+ 94%
0,6–0,7% 83%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 ago 2026
Negative
$0 Vol.
94%
0,0–0,1%
$0 Vol.
94%
0,2–0,3%
$0 Vol.
43%
0,4–0,5 %
$0 Vol.
44%
0,6–0,7%
$0 Vol.
83%
0,8–0,9%
$8 Vol.
-
1.0%+
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Middle East conflict have introduced energy price shocks that are pressuring UK inflation and consumer spending, creating substantial uncertainty around Q2 2026 GDP growth. April CPI eased to 2.8%, yet forecasts from the OECD and IMF have been lowered to around 0.8–0.9% for the full year amid higher energy costs and a loosening labor market with unemployment near 5%. Q1’s solid 0.6% expansion provides some momentum, but analysts highlight risks of subdued quarterly readings near 0.2–0.3% or potential contraction as base effects fade. These crosscurrents explain the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across bins, with traders weighing incoming data releases and Bank of England signals ahead of the Q2 outturn.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volumen
$8Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Middle East conflict have introduced energy price shocks that are pressuring UK inflation and consumer spending, creating substantial uncertainty around Q2 2026 GDP growth. April CPI eased to 2.8%, yet forecasts from the OECD and IMF have been lowered to around 0.8–0.9% for the full year amid higher energy costs and a loosening labor market with unemployment near 5%. Q1’s solid 0.6% expansion provides some momentum, but analysts highlight risks of subdued quarterly readings near 0.2–0.3% or potential contraction as base effects fade. These crosscurrents explain the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across bins, with traders weighing incoming data releases and Bank of England signals ahead of the Q2 outturn.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$8Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Middle East conflict have introduced energy price shocks that are pressuring UK inflation and consumer spending, creating substantial uncertainty around Q2 2026 GDP growth. April CPI eased to 2.8%, yet forecasts from the OECD and IMF have been lowered to around 0.8–0.9% for the full year amid higher energy costs and a loosening labor market with unemployment near 5%. Q1’s solid 0.6% expansion provides some momentum, but analysts highlight risks of subdued quarterly readings near 0.2–0.3% or potential contraction as base effects fade. These crosscurrents explain the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities across bins, with traders weighing incoming data releases and Bank of England signals ahead of the Q2 outturn.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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