Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year headline rate—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict has anchored trader focus on whether June figures will moderate toward 3.8-3.9%. The closely matched probabilities for those outcomes reflect uncertainty over base effects, shelter persistence, and potential further energy volatility, even as core CPI held at 2.9%. A resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and the Fed's steady 3.50-3.75% policy range reinforce expectations that underlying pressures may ease only gradually ahead of the mid-July release. Geopolitical developments remain the key swing factor that could shift implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoInflación de junio en EE. UU. - Anual
Inflación de junio en EE. UU. - Anual
3.8% 38.2%
3.9% 33%
3,7% 14.1%
4,0% 10%
$129,433 Vol.
$129,433 Vol.
15 jul 2026
≤3,6%
1%
3,7%
14%
3.8%
38%
3.9%
33%
4,0%
10%
4,1%
6%
4,2%
1%
4,3%
1%
4,4%
<1%
4,5%
<1%
4,6%
<1%
≥4,7%
1%
3.8% 38.2%
3.9% 33%
3,7% 14.1%
4,0% 10%
$129,433 Vol.
$129,433 Vol.
15 jul 2026
≤3,6%
$5,858 Vol.
1%
3,7%
$10,800 Vol.
14%
3.8%
$19,620 Vol.
38%
3.9%
$22,680 Vol.
33%
4,0%
$21,294 Vol.
10%
4,1%
$16,107 Vol.
6%
4,2%
$9,337 Vol.
1%
4,3%
$6,328 Vol.
1%
4,4%
$4,166 Vol.
<1%
4,5%
$5,237 Vol.
<1%
4,6%
$3,719 Vol.
<1%
≥4,7%
$5,526 Vol.
1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year headline rate—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict has anchored trader focus on whether June figures will moderate toward 3.8-3.9%. The closely matched probabilities for those outcomes reflect uncertainty over base effects, shelter persistence, and potential further energy volatility, even as core CPI held at 2.9%. A resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and the Fed's steady 3.50-3.75% policy range reinforce expectations that underlying pressures may ease only gradually ahead of the mid-July release. Geopolitical developments remain the key swing factor that could shift implied odds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 10, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Volumen
$129,433Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year headline rate—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict has anchored trader focus on whether June figures will moderate toward 3.8-3.9%. The closely matched probabilities for those outcomes reflect uncertainty over base effects, shelter persistence, and potential further energy volatility, even as core CPI held at 2.9%. A resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and the Fed's steady 3.50-3.75% policy range reinforce expectations that underlying pressures may ease only gradually ahead of the mid-July release. Geopolitical developments remain the key swing factor that could shift implied odds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$129,433Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year headline rate—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict has anchored trader focus on whether June figures will moderate toward 3.8-3.9%. The closely matched probabilities for those outcomes reflect uncertainty over base effects, shelter persistence, and potential further energy volatility, even as core CPI held at 2.9%. A resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and the Fed's steady 3.50-3.75% policy range reinforce expectations that underlying pressures may ease only gradually ahead of the mid-July release. Geopolitical developments remain the key swing factor that could shift implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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