Fragile ceasefires between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered after February 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership—hold shakily as of late April, with Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz devastating Tehran's economy by forcing oil storage in makeshift tanks. President Trump's diplomatic push, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, advances toward a potential US-Iran agreement on nuclear stockpiles and sanctions relief, but Israel doubts its viability, demanding complete abandonment of uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles amid no direct bilateral channels. Core disputes over proxies, territorial threats, and mutual non-recognition sustain low trader consensus for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, with stalled talks risking escalation before any resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$389,175 Vol.
30 jun 2026
May 31
10%
30 de junio
8%
$389,175 Vol.
May 31
$49 Vol.
10%
30 de junio
$74,530 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fragile ceasefires between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered after February 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership—hold shakily as of late April, with Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz devastating Tehran's economy by forcing oil storage in makeshift tanks. President Trump's diplomatic push, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, advances toward a potential US-Iran agreement on nuclear stockpiles and sanctions relief, but Israel doubts its viability, demanding complete abandonment of uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles amid no direct bilateral channels. Core disputes over proxies, territorial threats, and mutual non-recognition sustain low trader consensus for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, with stalled talks risking escalation before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volumen
$389,175Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Fragile ceasefires between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered after February 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership—hold shakily as of late April, with Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz devastating Tehran's economy by forcing oil storage in makeshift tanks. President Trump's diplomatic push, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, advances toward a potential US-Iran agreement on nuclear stockpiles and sanctions relief, but Israel doubts its viability, demanding complete abandonment of uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles amid no direct bilateral channels. Core disputes over proxies, territorial threats, and mutual non-recognition sustain low trader consensus for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, with stalled talks risking escalation before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$389,175Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Fragile ceasefires between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered after February 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, military assets, and leadership—hold shakily as of late April, with Hezbollah violations in southern Lebanon and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz devastating Tehran's economy by forcing oil storage in makeshift tanks. President Trump's diplomatic push, mediated by Pakistan and Oman, advances toward a potential US-Iran agreement on nuclear stockpiles and sanctions relief, but Israel doubts its viability, demanding complete abandonment of uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles amid no direct bilateral channels. Core disputes over proxies, territorial threats, and mutual non-recognition sustain low trader consensus for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, with stalled talks risking escalation before any resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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