US-mediated talks produced a June 3 conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and evacuating operatives south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah rejected the terms the following day and demanded a full Israeli withdrawal as the precondition for any truce. Israeli officials have stated that operations in southern Lebanon will continue and troops will not withdraw until security conditions are met, while Lebanese authorities have begun planning limited army deployments in designated pilot zones. Further bilateral security discussions are scheduled for the week of June 22. These positions reflect entrenched differences over sequencing of withdrawals, Hezbollah’s military presence, and implementation of prior truce extensions, directly shaping trader assessments of near-term Israeli disengagement timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
$2,518,458 Vol.
31 jul 2026
30 de junio
7%
July 31
13%
$2,518,458 Vol.
30 de junio
$755,350 Vol.
7%
July 31
$147,659 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.US-mediated talks produced a June 3 conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and evacuating operatives south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah rejected the terms the following day and demanded a full Israeli withdrawal as the precondition for any truce. Israeli officials have stated that operations in southern Lebanon will continue and troops will not withdraw until security conditions are met, while Lebanese authorities have begun planning limited army deployments in designated pilot zones. Further bilateral security discussions are scheduled for the week of June 22. These positions reflect entrenched differences over sequencing of withdrawals, Hezbollah’s military presence, and implementation of prior truce extensions, directly shaping trader assessments of near-term Israeli disengagement timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 22, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volumen
$2,518,458Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.US-mediated talks produced a June 3 conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and evacuating operatives south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah rejected the terms the following day and demanded a full Israeli withdrawal as the precondition for any truce. Israeli officials have stated that operations in southern Lebanon will continue and troops will not withdraw until security conditions are met, while Lebanese authorities have begun planning limited army deployments in designated pilot zones. Further bilateral security discussions are scheduled for the week of June 22. These positions reflect entrenched differences over sequencing of withdrawals, Hezbollah’s military presence, and implementation of prior truce extensions, directly shaping trader assessments of near-term Israeli disengagement timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$2,518,458Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated talks produced a June 3 conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and evacuating operatives south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah rejected the terms the following day and demanded a full Israeli withdrawal as the precondition for any truce. Israeli officials have stated that operations in southern Lebanon will continue and troops will not withdraw until security conditions are met, while Lebanese authorities have begun planning limited army deployments in designated pilot zones. Further bilateral security discussions are scheduled for the week of June 22. These positions reflect entrenched differences over sequencing of withdrawals, Hezbollah’s military presence, and implementation of prior truce extensions, directly shaping trader assessments of near-term Israeli disengagement timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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