Iran's longstanding insistence on preserving its right to uranium enrichment for civilian purposes remains the central barrier, with Tehran consistently rejecting zero-enrichment demands in ongoing U.S. talks. Recent May 2026 proposals from Iran have focused on diluting or addressing its highly enriched uranium stockpile and reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief and cease-fire terms, while deferring or limiting but not eliminating enrichment activities. U.S. positions under the Trump administration have emphasized permanent curbs or suspension, creating gaps that prior rounds of indirect and direct negotiations, including those mediated in Oman, have not closed. Iranian officials and the supreme leader have reiterated opposition to dismantling capabilities or forgoing enrichment technology, even as a draft memorandum outlines further 60-day nuclear discussions without firm commitments on a full end to the program by late July. These dynamics underpin trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome.