Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's April announcement to seek re-election at age 83, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for a Republican victory in Idaho's deep-red U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—no Democrat has held the seat since 1998—and a weak Democratic primary field featuring minor candidates like Brad Moore. With the May 19 Republican primary approaching amid challenges from Joe Evans and others, including independent Todd Achilles who polled strongly in March, markets price in Risch's incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe red-state holds. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Risch health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural factors like low Democratic turnout in Idaho render these low-probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Idaho
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Idaho
$15,214 Vol.
$15,214 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
91%
Demócrata
8%
$15,214 Vol.
$15,214 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$10,591 Vol.
91%
Demócrata
$4,623 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's April announcement to seek re-election at age 83, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for a Republican victory in Idaho's deep-red U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—no Democrat has held the seat since 1998—and a weak Democratic primary field featuring minor candidates like Brad Moore. With the May 19 Republican primary approaching amid challenges from Joe Evans and others, including independent Todd Achilles who polled strongly in March, markets price in Risch's incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe red-state holds. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Risch health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural factors like low Democratic turnout in Idaho render these low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$15,214Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's April announcement to seek re-election at age 83, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for a Republican victory in Idaho's deep-red U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—no Democrat has held the seat since 1998—and a weak Democratic primary field featuring minor candidates like Brad Moore. With the May 19 Republican primary approaching amid challenges from Joe Evans and others, including independent Todd Achilles who polled strongly in March, markets price in Risch's incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe red-state holds. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Risch health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural factors like low Democratic turnout in Idaho render these low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$15,214Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's April announcement to seek re-election at age 83, bolstered by President Trump's endorsement, has solidified trader consensus at 90.5% for a Republican victory in Idaho's deep-red U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance—no Democrat has held the seat since 1998—and a weak Democratic primary field featuring minor candidates like Brad Moore. With the May 19 Republican primary approaching amid challenges from Joe Evans and others, including independent Todd Achilles who polled strongly in March, markets price in Risch's incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe red-state holds. Scenarios to upend this include a primary upset yielding a flawed nominee, Risch health issues, or an extraordinary national Democratic wave, though structural factors like low Democratic turnout in Idaho render these low-probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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