Trader consensus heavily favors 8–9 ships at 97.5% implied probability, reflecting verified tallies from U.S. Central Command, maritime trackers like Kpler, and open-source reports confirming Iranian forces—primarily IRGC Navy—successfully targeted that exact number of distinct commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war escalation. April 22 marked the freshest major action, with Iran firing on three outbound ships and seizing two (Epaminondas and MSC Francesca) in retaliation to the U.S. naval blockade, but no further confirmed hits emerged in the final week despite ceasefire talks. This commanding position stems from the absence of late April 30 incidents and cross-verified counts stabilizing below 10 since late February's war onset, where over 20 attacks were initially logged but refined downward. Realistic challenges include disputed reclassifications of borderline strikes or eleventh-hour CENTCOM updates altering the final resolution tally.