Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, driven by severely restricted vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran standoff, where daily crossings average 5-13 Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels under IRGC controls and US naval blockade enforcement. Partial data through April 29 shows ~40 confirmed transits (e.g., 13 on April 27, 8 on April 28, 20 on April 29 per Windward), projecting a weekly total below 50 barring unlikely surges, with recent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions enabling a modest uptick from prior single digits but far below pre-crisis norms of 130+ daily. Higher bins like 50-74 at 18.5% reflect tail risks from diplomatic breakthroughs, while oil supply disruptions sustain Brent crude above $90/bbl. Resolution hinges on May 3 data amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
25-49 62%
50-74 22%
<25 9%
75-99 6.6%
$43,596 Vol.
$43,596 Vol.
3 may 2026
<25
9%
25-49
62%
50-74
22%
75-99
7%
100-124
1%
125-149
1%
150+
<1%
25-49 62%
50-74 22%
<25 9%
75-99 6.6%
$43,596 Vol.
$43,596 Vol.
3 may 2026
<25
$3,994 Vol.
9%
25-49
$16,305 Vol.
62%
50-74
$7,386 Vol.
22%
75-99
$1,347 Vol.
7%
100-124
$5,084 Vol.
1%
125-149
$5,276 Vol.
1%
150+
$4,522 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, driven by severely restricted vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran standoff, where daily crossings average 5-13 Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels under IRGC controls and US naval blockade enforcement. Partial data through April 29 shows ~40 confirmed transits (e.g., 13 on April 27, 8 on April 28, 20 on April 29 per Windward), projecting a weekly total below 50 barring unlikely surges, with recent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions enabling a modest uptick from prior single digits but far below pre-crisis norms of 130+ daily. Higher bins like 50-74 at 18.5% reflect tail risks from diplomatic breakthroughs, while oil supply disruptions sustain Brent crude above $90/bbl. Resolution hinges on May 3 data amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$43,596Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, driven by severely restricted vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran standoff, where daily crossings average 5-13 Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels under IRGC controls and US naval blockade enforcement. Partial data through April 29 shows ~40 confirmed transits (e.g., 13 on April 27, 8 on April 28, 20 on April 29 per Windward), projecting a weekly total below 50 barring unlikely surges, with recent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions enabling a modest uptick from prior single digits but far below pre-crisis norms of 130+ daily. Higher bins like 50-74 at 18.5% reflect tail risks from diplomatic breakthroughs, while oil supply disruptions sustain Brent crude above $90/bbl. Resolution hinges on May 3 data amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$43,596Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, driven by severely restricted vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran standoff, where daily crossings average 5-13 Iran-linked or sanctioned vessels under IRGC controls and US naval blockade enforcement. Partial data through April 29 shows ~40 confirmed transits (e.g., 13 on April 27, 8 on April 28, 20 on April 29 per Windward), projecting a weekly total below 50 barring unlikely surges, with recent Omani-mediated humanitarian exemptions enabling a modest uptick from prior single digits but far below pre-crisis norms of 130+ daily. Higher bins like 50-74 at 18.5% reflect tail risks from diplomatic breakthroughs, while oil supply disruptions sustain Brent crude above $90/bbl. Resolution hinges on May 3 data amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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