Strong May 2026 employment data, with nonfarm payrolls rising 172,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, has reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver zero rate cuts through year-end, consistent with the 78.5% market-implied probability. Persistent inflation pressures, partly linked to geopolitical factors, and resilient labor conditions have prompted economists to shift forecasts toward holding the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with several major banks now projecting the first cuts in 2027. The June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could influence the low probabilities assigned to one or more 25-basis-point cuts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%12%
Fed Chair Powell stated that progress on inflation will be slower than hoped, and the median projection showed just one 25 bps cut in 2026. Market expectations for cuts pulled back sharply, with probabilities for no cuts rising significantly after this announcement.
Goldman Sachs drops Fed rate cut forecast for 2026 on strong jobs data
0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%
Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their rate cut forecasts to 2027, predicting no rate cuts at all in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Goldman Sachs revises forecast, no Fed rate cuts expected in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%7%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This reflects a shift in market sentiment towards zero cuts for the year.
Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast, Expects No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Economists No Longer Expect Any Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to project zero rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing the probability of the '0 (0 bps)' outcome to near-certainty.
Goldman Sachs no longer expects Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to strong labor market
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists revised their outlook, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market. This further solidified market pricing for zero cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Economists Abandon Forecast for 2026 Fed Rate Cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%9%
Following a stronger-than-expected labor market report, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Fed rate cuts in 2026, pushing their forecast to 2027.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 79%25%
In early June 2026, the Fed's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut for the year, reflecting slower-than-expected inflation progress and geopolitical uncertainties. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero or one cut, reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 3%7%
In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
In early June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 bps cut for the rest of the year, with inflation progress slower than hoped and geopolitical risks weighing. This led markets to sharply reduce odds of multiple cuts, pushing the zero cuts option price to near 80%.
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 and 2027
0 (0 bps) surges to 70%33%
In May 2026, major banks revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market. Goldman Sachs pushed back cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, while BofA expects no cuts in 2026, reflecting growing market skepticism about rate reductions this year.
Unusually divided Federal Reserve holds rates steady as four members dissent
0 (0 bps) surges to 58%24%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision saw a rare four dissents, with some members objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.
Federal Reserve meeting expected to hold rates amid inflation and geopolitical risks
Ahead of the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, markets widely expected the Fed to keep rates steady due to inflation near 4.7% and oil price pressures from Iran tensions. This cautious stance reinforced market views that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or delayed.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Risks
On April 29, 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with four officials dissenting, the highest dissent level since 1992. The decision reflected caution due to persistent inflation, rising energy prices linked to the Iran war, and labor market uncertainty, reducing market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady amid Middle East uncertainty, signals no immediate cuts
0 (0 bps) surges to 37%31%
At the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, noting high uncertainty due to developments in the Middle East. The statement removed an easing bias, and four policymakers dissented, preferring a cut. Market expectations shifted towards zero cuts in 2026.
FOMC meeting results show no rate change, dissent among policymakers
0 (0 bps) surges to 77%39%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenters favoring cuts. The minutes indicated market expectations for rate cuts shifted later in the year, with no immediate easing, reflecting ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Four Fed policymakers dissent as central bank pauses rates again
0 (0 bps) surges to 57%19%
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but a surprise development saw four policymakers dissent, signaling deep internal divisions and a shift toward a more hawkish stance.
Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged with Record Four Dissents
0 (0 bps) surges to 55%15%
The Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid high uncertainty in the Middle East, with four policymakers dissenting in favor of a rate hike or different action.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady with rare internal dissent
In April 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with four officials dissenting, the highest dissent level since 1992, reflecting internal divisions and uncertainty amid inflation above target and geopolitical risks.
Federal Reserve maintains rates steady amid elevated inflation and labor market softness
0 (0 bps) dips to 6%1%
The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, noting economic activity expanding at a solid pace but inflation remaining somewhat elevated. The statement highlighted downside risks to employment and uncertainty about the economic outlook, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. This further dampened market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Citing Inflation Uncertainty
The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing ongoing inflation uncertainty and energy price volatility. This reinforced market expectations of limited or delayed rate cuts in 2026.
Fed keeps rates unchanged as war in Middle East and inflation weigh on outlook
0 (0 bps) surges to 31%15%
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.
Federal Reserve leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged for second straight meeting
1 (25 bps) jumps to 36%8%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and Middle East developments.
FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%4%
The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% with a 92%+ probability of no change. The meeting included updated economic projections factoring in Iran conflict and tariffs. Market expectations for cuts weakened as the Fed adopted a data-dependent stance.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rates Amid Middle East Conflict and Elevated Inflation
0 (0 bps) jumps to 29%10%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and economic uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting solid economic expansion but persistent inflation and elevated uncertainty due to geopolitical risks. The committee emphasized careful assessment of incoming data before any rate adjustments, with one member dissenting for a 25 basis point cut.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook
1 (25 bps) rises to 17%1%
On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing inflation uncertainty and energy prices. The Summary of Economic Projections continued to show a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026, maintaining market expectations for limited easing.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid cautious optimism
0 (0 bps) jumps to 17%10%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged, reflecting a cautious approach as the Fed awaited clearer signals on inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for cuts remained low following this decision.
Fed officials project only one rate cut in 2026 amid policy divisions
1 (25 bps) plunges to 14%16%
Fed policymakers showed a divided outlook but generally projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting uncertainty and caution. This official guidance influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead amid inflation concerns
1 (25 bps) dips to 14%3%
On March 18, 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty including geopolitical risks. The updated projections showed only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026, tempering market expectations for aggressive easing.
Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%13%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign after three consecutive cuts, signaling a shift to a neutral stance amid solid economic expansion and persistent inflation. This decision reinforced market expectations for fewer or no cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, pausing rate cuts after three consecutive reductions
0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%
In January 2026, the Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign, keeping rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a shift to a neutral stance amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. This caused market prices to shift strongly toward zero cuts in 2026, reflecting reduced expectations for further easing.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, pausing rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign in January 2026, keeping rates at 3.5%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts. This signaled a shift to a neutral stance and reduced market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, causing a pullback in cut probabilities.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady as Two Policymakers Dissent in Favor of a Cut
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point reduction.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% Amid Dissent
At the January 28 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, ending a series of three rate cuts in late 2025. Two members dissented, favoring a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal debate but overall caution due to ongoing inflation and economic conditions.
FOMC minutes reveal divided views on inflation and rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%
Minutes from the January 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting showed concern about persistent inflation and a divided committee, with some members preferring further cuts while others awaited more data. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of future cuts and inflation risks.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting
1 (25 bps) dips to 9%2%
At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation. This reinforced the market view of limited rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rate Cuts, Holding Benchmark Rate Steady
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, halting its streak of consecutive cuts and signaling a shift to neutral ground.
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points, Projects Only One Cut in 2026
The Fed reduced its benchmark rate to 3.50%-3.75% but issued economic projections indicating only one additional quarter-point cut is expected for the entirety of 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in December 2025, signaling caution due to inflation remaining above target and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This pause tempered market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, signals cautious 2026 outlook
1 (25 bps) jumps to 12%6%
On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, citing downside risks to employment and elevated inflation. Updated projections indicated expectations for only one additional rate cut in 2026. This move reinforced the cautious stance amid economic uncertainty and influenced market expectations for limited easing in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction since September 2025. The Fed signaled expectations for only one additional rate cut in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid inflation pressures and a softening labor market. This event increased market confidence in a limited number of cuts in 2026, boosting the price for zero cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third consecutive time, signals pause
3 (75 bps) dips to 21%2%
In December 2025, the Fed cut rates by another 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut, but signaled a pause and highlighted uncertainty due to incomplete economic data and internal divisions, tempering expectations for aggressive cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points at December 2025 meeting
3 (75 bps) plunges to 23%15%
The Fed delivered its third consecutive 25-basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This cut ended 2025 with easing momentum, but uncertainty remained due to missing inflation and jobs data caused by a government shutdown. This event initially supported expectations for further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates but signals likely pause and projects only one cut in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%3%
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut but issued new economic projections showing that the median policymaker expects only one quarter-point reduction in 2026, prompting markets to scale back expectations of aggressive easing.
Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September 2025. This move was intended to support economic growth amid a slowing labor market and elevated inflation, signaling expectations for only one additional cut in 2026. The market reacted with increased probability for fewer cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%
2 (50 bps) dips to 23%2%
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, aiming to support a slowing economy and a flagging job market. This reinforced market expectations for some easing but also highlighted internal Fed divisions and uncertainty about future cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025
5 (125 bps) plunges to 10%26%
In early December 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points again to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third cut that year. This move was aimed at supporting a slowing labor market and moderating inflation, reinforcing expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
On October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, aiming to support economic growth and the labor market amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation.
Federal Reserve delivers second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut
4 (100 bps) plunges to 11%25%
The Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points in late October 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This confirmed the easing cycle and raised expectations for further cuts, influencing market pricing for 2026 rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by Quarter Point to 3.75%-4.00% Range
0 (0 bps) dips to 5%1%
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its second consecutive cut and signaling a steady easing cycle heading into 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
2 (50 bps) drops to 20%6%
On October 29, 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps, signaling the start of an easing cycle amid easing inflation but with ongoing economic uncertainty. This was the second consecutive cut, raising expectations for possible further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve announces 25 basis point rate cut amid economic pressures
In September 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first reduction in some time, signaling a positive but cautious direction for inflation and borrowing costs. This move raised market hopes for further cuts in 2026, influencing derivative hedging demand and rate-sensitive sectors.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid easing inflation
2 (50 bps) plunges to 20%16%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the start of an easing cycle as inflation showed signs of abating. This move was seen as a cautious step to balance inflation control with economic support, influencing market expectations for future cuts.
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