Trader consensus around ≤8 or 9 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes globally by June 30 reflects the current USGS tally of just six such events through mid-June 2026, including the recent Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines on June 8. This pace aligns with typical early-year variability but leaves little room for acceleration in the remaining 16 days. Long-term USGS records show an average of roughly 15–16 annual M7+ events worldwide, driven by stochastic stress release along subduction zones and transform faults, with short-term clusters rare absent foreshock sequences or major aftershock sequences. No current monitoring indicators from global networks suggest elevated rates, supporting market-implied odds that favor continuation of subdued activity through month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio? (Ataques más altos)
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio? (Ataques más altos)
≤8 51%
9 29%
10 8.8%
12 1.9%
$107,997 Vol.
$107,997 Vol.
30 jun 2026
≤8
51%
9
24%
10
9%
11
2%
12
2%
13
1%
14+
1%
≤8 51%
9 29%
10 8.8%
12 1.9%
$107,997 Vol.
$107,997 Vol.
30 jun 2026
≤8
$30,626 Vol.
51%
9
$18,954 Vol.
24%
10
$9,974 Vol.
9%
11
$30,155 Vol.
2%
12
$7,680 Vol.
2%
13
$4,270 Vol.
1%
14+
$6,513 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus around ≤8 or 9 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes globally by June 30 reflects the current USGS tally of just six such events through mid-June 2026, including the recent Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines on June 8. This pace aligns with typical early-year variability but leaves little room for acceleration in the remaining 16 days. Long-term USGS records show an average of roughly 15–16 annual M7+ events worldwide, driven by stochastic stress release along subduction zones and transform faults, with short-term clusters rare absent foreshock sequences or major aftershock sequences. No current monitoring indicators from global networks suggest elevated rates, supporting market-implied odds that favor continuation of subdued activity through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$107,997Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus around ≤8 or 9 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes globally by June 30 reflects the current USGS tally of just six such events through mid-June 2026, including the recent Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines on June 8. This pace aligns with typical early-year variability but leaves little room for acceleration in the remaining 16 days. Long-term USGS records show an average of roughly 15–16 annual M7+ events worldwide, driven by stochastic stress release along subduction zones and transform faults, with short-term clusters rare absent foreshock sequences or major aftershock sequences. No current monitoring indicators from global networks suggest elevated rates, supporting market-implied odds that favor continuation of subdued activity through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$107,997Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around ≤8 or 9 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes globally by June 30 reflects the current USGS tally of just six such events through mid-June 2026, including the recent Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines on June 8. This pace aligns with typical early-year variability but leaves little room for acceleration in the remaining 16 days. Long-term USGS records show an average of roughly 15–16 annual M7+ events worldwide, driven by stochastic stress release along subduction zones and transform faults, with short-term clusters rare absent foreshock sequences or major aftershock sequences. No current monitoring indicators from global networks suggest elevated rates, supporting market-implied odds that favor continuation of subdued activity through month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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