**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no rate changes at the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings.** With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing a modest rise toward 3.8% by year-end, markets assign 67% probability to Pause–Pause–Pause. Recent data show headline CPI near 4% year-over-year in May and unemployment around 4.3%, while March SEP projections and subsequent communications have tempered earlier cut expectations. The upcoming June dot plot and potential leadership transition add modest uncertainty, yet the current policy stance and incoming indicators continue to support the market-implied pause consensus through September.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 72%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
27%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$307 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,038 Vol.
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$328 Vol.
27%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Vol.
1%
Other
$287 Vol.
14%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no rate changes at the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings.** With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing a modest rise toward 3.8% by year-end, markets assign 67% probability to Pause–Pause–Pause. Recent data show headline CPI near 4% year-over-year in May and unemployment around 4.3%, while March SEP projections and subsequent communications have tempered earlier cut expectations. The upcoming June dot plot and potential leadership transition add modest uncertainty, yet the current policy stance and incoming indicators continue to support the market-implied pause consensus through September.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$3,696Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no rate changes at the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings.** With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing a modest rise toward 3.8% by year-end, markets assign 67% probability to Pause–Pause–Pause. Recent data show headline CPI near 4% year-over-year in May and unemployment around 4.3%, while March SEP projections and subsequent communications have tempered earlier cut expectations. The upcoming June dot plot and potential leadership transition add modest uncertainty, yet the current policy stance and incoming indicators continue to support the market-implied pause consensus through September.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$3,696Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for no rate changes at the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings.** With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50–3.75% and futures pricing a modest rise toward 3.8% by year-end, markets assign 67% probability to Pause–Pause–Pause. Recent data show headline CPI near 4% year-over-year in May and unemployment around 4.3%, while March SEP projections and subsequent communications have tempered earlier cut expectations. The upcoming June dot plot and potential leadership transition add modest uncertainty, yet the current policy stance and incoming indicators continue to support the market-implied pause consensus through September.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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