Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's term runs through May 2028 under current constitutional limits, with the next presidential election scheduled no later than May 14 of that year, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% against his exit by December 31, 2026. The ruling AK Party dismissed opposition calls for snap elections in February 2026, emphasizing no early polls before 2028, while the main opposition CHP's April 1 push to force early voting amid economic pressures and crackdowns has gained no traction. Unconfirmed health rumors from February failed to materialize into official issues, and discussions of constitutional amendments for re-election eligibility remain speculative without action. Absent a no-confidence trigger, resignation, or major scandal, traders see significant barriers to change before year-end.