**Erdoğan’s constitutionally secured term extends through the scheduled 2028 presidential election, with no snap vote called and no procedural mechanism forcing an exit before late 2026.** Recent court rulings that nullified opposition leadership elections and removed key CHP figures have further consolidated the ruling AKP’s institutional position, reducing near-term challenges to his authority. Speculation about health concerns persists without official confirmation of incapacity, while Erdoğan has continued active diplomacy, public appearances, and domestic governance into mid-2026. Discussions of succession—centered on figures such as Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan or family members—reflect longer-term planning rather than imminent departure, and constitutional amendments or early elections that could alter term limits remain speculative without legislative action. These elements underpin trader consensus that removal by December 31, 2026, remains unlikely.