Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates the race in California's 15th Congressional District—a reliably Democratic stronghold in San Mateo County and the Peninsula—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Republican candidates have emerged to challenge the district's partisan lean, where GOP vote shares historically lag below 35%. Mullin's recent announcements securing over $12 million in federal funding for local infrastructure, child care, and transit projects have reinforced his incumbency advantage and voter goodwill. Barring a major scandal, primary upset, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, structural factors favor a Democratic hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-15 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$111,745 Vol.
$111,745 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
4%
$111,745 Vol.
$111,745 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$92,517 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$19,228 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates the race in California's 15th Congressional District—a reliably Democratic stronghold in San Mateo County and the Peninsula—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Republican candidates have emerged to challenge the district's partisan lean, where GOP vote shares historically lag below 35%. Mullin's recent announcements securing over $12 million in federal funding for local infrastructure, child care, and transit projects have reinforced his incumbency advantage and voter goodwill. Barring a major scandal, primary upset, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, structural factors favor a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$111,745Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates the race in California's 15th Congressional District—a reliably Democratic stronghold in San Mateo County and the Peninsula—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Republican candidates have emerged to challenge the district's partisan lean, where GOP vote shares historically lag below 35%. Mullin's recent announcements securing over $12 million in federal funding for local infrastructure, child care, and transit projects have reinforced his incumbency advantage and voter goodwill. Barring a major scandal, primary upset, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, structural factors favor a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$111,745Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin dominates the race in California's 15th Congressional District—a reliably Democratic stronghold in San Mateo County and the Peninsula—driving trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, no credible Republican candidates have emerged to challenge the district's partisan lean, where GOP vote shares historically lag below 35%. Mullin's recent announcements securing over $12 million in federal funding for local infrastructure, child care, and transit projects have reinforced his incumbency advantage and voter goodwill. Barring a major scandal, primary upset, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, structural factors favor a Democratic hold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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