Poll released by Nexus/BTG Pactual shows Zema ahead of rival Ronaldo Caiado, putting him in the top‑three right‑wing contenders and pushing the

Romeu Zema rises to 11%4%

Poll released by Nexus/BTG Pactual shows Zema ahead of rival Ronaldo Caiado, putting him in the top‑three right‑wing contenders and pushing the

Zema again denies a vice‑presidential slot for Flávio Bolsonaro, confirming the three‑way right‑wing split and further raising his odds

Romeu Zema rises to 7%2%

Zema again denies a vice‑presidential slot for Flávio Bolsonaro, confirming the three‑way right‑wing split and further raising his odds

Novo party unveils Zema’s government‑plan guidelines in São Paulo, giving him a concrete policy platform and boosting investor confidence

Romeu Zema rises to 5%3%

Novo party unveils Zema’s government‑plan guidelines in São Paulo, giving him a concrete policy platform and boosting investor confidence

Polls reveal Flávio Bolsonaro closing the gap significantly, with Lula’s lead narrowing to a statistical tie, reflecting growing uncertainty and market

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%3%

Polls reveal Flávio Bolsonaro closing the gap significantly, with Lula’s lead narrowing to a statistical tie, reflecting growing uncertainty and market

Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula for the first time within the margin of error in a runoff scenario, marking a significant milestone in his campaign and lifting

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 43%3%

Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula for the first time within the margin of error in a runoff scenario, marking a significant milestone in his campaign and lifting market

Reuters reports Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff polls, highlighting the tight race and reinforcing market expectations of a close contest

Reuters reports Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff polls, highlighting the tight race and reinforcing market expectations of a close contest

Datafolha poll confirms Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula statistically tied in a runoff scenario, reflecting Flávio’s rising momentum and market

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%

Datafolha poll confirms Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula statistically tied in a runoff scenario, reflecting Flávio’s rising momentum and market

Report reveals Renan Santos has accumulated significant debts with the federal government, raising questions about his financial credibility and possibly limiting market confidence

Renan Santos dips to 6%1%

Report reveals Renan Santos has accumulated significant debts with the federal government, raising questions about his financial credibility and possibly limiting market confidence

Zema publicly rejects any invitation to be Flávio Bolsonaro’s vice‑presidential candidate, underscoring his solo run and nudging the

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

Zema publicly rejects any invitation to be Flávio Bolsonaro’s vice‑presidential candidate, underscoring his solo run and nudging the

Lula confirms Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate again, aiming to consolidate his coalition and stabilize his campaign amid rising opposition

Lula confirms Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate again, aiming to consolidate his coalition and stabilize his campaign amid rising opposition

Zema resigns as Governor of Minas Gerais to launch his presidential pre‑campaign, cementing his personal bid and lifting his market probability

Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%

Zema resigns as Governor of Minas Gerais to launch his presidential pre‑campaign, cementing his personal bid and lifting his market probability

Polls show Haddad trailing significantly behind São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in the gubernatorial race, further diminishing his prospects for a presidential run and

Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%

Polls show Haddad trailing significantly behind São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in the gubernatorial race, further diminishing his prospects for a presidential run and solidifying market expectations of his non-candidacy

Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing nearly even with Lula in a potential runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and boosting market confidence

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 39%6%

Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing nearly even with Lula in a potential runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and boosting market confidence

Polls show Renan Santos surpassing traditional governors like Zema and Caiado to assume third place in some surveys, reflecting gradual consolidation of a youth and anti-system

Renan Santos rises to 8%3%

Polls show Renan Santos surpassing traditional governors like Zema and Caiado to assume third place in some surveys, reflecting gradual consolidation of a youth and anti-system voter base, but still trailing major candidates

Flávio Bolsonaro’s polling numbers rise further amid growing support from Bolsonaro’s base and right-wing voters dissatisfied with Lula’s economic policies, pushing market

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro’s polling numbers rise further amid growing support from Bolsonaro’s base and right-wing voters dissatisfied with Lula’s economic policies, pushing market

Haddad states his departure from the Finance Ministry depends on Lula’s scheduled meeting with U.S.

Fernando Haddad rises to 3%1%

President Donald Trump, reinforcing his role as a campaign collaborator rather than a candidate

Despite internal pressure from the Workers’ Party, Haddad continues to resist running for president, with the government increasing pressure on him to run for São Paulo governor

Despite internal pressure from the Workers’ Party, Haddad continues to resist running for president, with the government increasing pressure on him to run for São Paulo governor instead, signaling a shift away from a presidential bid

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as the main challenger to Lula, solidifying his status as the leading opposition candidate and driving market optimism

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%11%

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as the main challenger to Lula, solidifying his status as the leading opposition candidate and driving market optimism

Bolsonaro is transferred from federal police headquarters to a larger state prison cell with improved conditions after complaints from his defense team;

the Supreme Court denies his request for house arrest. This confirmed his continued incarceration and inability to campaign, maintaining his low market

Haddad reaffirms in a press conference that he will not run for public office in 2026 and announces plans to leave the Finance Ministry by February to collaborate with Lula’s

Fernando Haddad dips to 2%1%

Haddad reaffirms in a press conference that he will not run for public office in 2026 and announces plans to leave the Finance Ministry by February to collaborate with Lula’s reelection campaign, confirming he is not a presidential candidate

Polls show Lula leading all second-round scenarios but with a reduced margin against Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a tightening race and contributing to

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%6%

Polls show Lula leading all second-round scenarios but with a reduced margin against Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a tightening race and contributing to

Renan Santos participates in high-profile interviews and digital campaigns boosting visibility and engagement, causing a slight market rebound to 10%

Renan Santos rises to 10%4%

Renan Santos participates in high-profile interviews and digital campaigns boosting visibility and engagement, causing a slight market rebound to 10%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially announces his presidential candidacy with his father’s public backing, marking his formal entry into the race and sparking increased market interest

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 18%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially announces his presidential candidacy with his father’s public backing, marking his formal entry into the race and sparking increased market interest

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, enters the 2026 presidential race with his father’s endorsement, introducing a strong right-wing challenger and

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 54%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, enters the 2026 presidential race with his father’s endorsement, introducing a strong right-wing challenger and increasing competition

Renan Santos maintains steady but low polling numbers amid growing consolidation of other right-wing candidates, with market

Renan Santos rises to 6%1%

Renan Santos maintains steady but low polling numbers amid growing consolidation of other right-wing candidates, with market

Imprisoned ex-President Jair Bolsonaro endorses his son Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential race, positioning Flávio as the heir apparent of the far-right Liberal Party and

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%

Imprisoned ex-President Jair Bolsonaro endorses his son Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential race, positioning Flávio as the heir apparent of the far-right Liberal Party and consolidating his political base

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is arrested at his home after tampering with his ankle bracelet surveillance monitor, sparking concerns of an attempted escape from house

Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is arrested at his home after tampering with his ankle bracelet surveillance monitor, sparking concerns of an attempted escape from house arrest before beginning his prison term. This event reinforced the perception of Bolsonaro’s legal vulnerability and further diminished his electoral prospects

Lula officially announces his candidacy for a fourth presidential term during a visit to Indonesia, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%

Lula officially announces his candidacy for a fourth presidential term during a visit to Indonesia, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence

Early polls and political analysis reveal fragmentation of Brazil’s right-wing opposition, with Renan Santos expected to gain some space but facing strong competition from Flávio

Renan Santos plunges to 3%47%

Early polls and political analysis reveal fragmentation of Brazil’s right-wing opposition, with Renan Santos expected to gain some space but facing strong competition from Flávio Bolsonaro and others, causing a sharp market drop to 3%

Mission Party officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court, with Renan Santos as president, marking his formal entry into the 2026 presidential race and initial market

Mission Party officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court, with Renan Santos as president, marking his formal entry into the 2026 presidential race and initial market optimism

Bolsonaro delays decision on endorsing a candidate for the 2026 presidential election amid ongoing legal appeals and political uncertainty, signaling his political marginalization

Jair Bolsonaro dips to 2%2%

Bolsonaro delays decision on endorsing a candidate for the 2026 presidential election amid ongoing legal appeals and political uncertainty, signaling his political marginalization and inability to actively participate in the race

Fernando Haddad publicly states he does not intend to run for president in 2026, emphasizing his desire to focus on discussing a national project and international affairs, which

Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%

Fernando Haddad publicly states he does not intend to run for president in 2026, emphasizing his desire to focus on discussing a national project and international affairs, which sharply reduced market confidence in his presidential chances

Lula leads all first- and second-round scenarios in Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections according to Quaest poll, but majority oppose his re-election bid, signaling early mixed

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 43%12%

Lula leads all first- and second-round scenarios in Brazil’s 2026 presidential elections according to Quaest poll, but majority oppose his re-election bid, signaling early mixed market sentiment

Brazil’s Supreme Court convicts former President Jair Bolsonaro of overseeing a failed coup attempt to overturn his 2022 election loss and sentences him to over 27 years in prison;

Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 7%29%

seven co-conspirators are also convicted. This unprecedented conviction marked a historic moment in Brazil’s political history and drastically reduced Bolsonaro’s chances of running in 2026

(Contextual earlier event) Bolsonaro is barred from running for office for eight years by Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court after being found guilty of abusing his power and

Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 7%29%

(Contextual earlier event) Bolsonaro is barred from running for office for eight years by Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court after being found guilty of abusing his power and undermining the electoral system, setting the stage for his declining market