**Brazilian Senate procedures, combined with an STF preliminary ruling suspending key provisions of the 1950 impeachment law (Lei 1.079/50), create substantial barriers to removing any justice before 2027.** No STF minister has ever been impeached despite dozens of formal requests over the years, most recently concentrated against Justices Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes. Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance such petitions, and a December 2025 liminar by Gilmar Mendes—still pending plenary review—further restricts standing and process for these cases. Recent parliamentary inquiries, including an April 2026 CPI report recommending proceedings against three justices over a financial scandal, have not translated into active Senate votes. With national elections scheduled for October 2026 and new terms beginning the following year, any potential shift in Senate composition would face tight timelines and ongoing judicial constraints. Traders assign only a 3.6% chance of removal because these institutional and procedural factors have historically blocked progress, even amid polarized debates over court powers. Realistic paths that could still move the needle include a decisive post-election Senate majority overriding procedural blocks or a singular, broadly supported scandal generating supermajority momentum before year-end. Such outcomes remain low-probability given the short window and precedent of Senate restraint.