Ongoing mutual blockades amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict—US naval enforcement on Iranian ports and Iranian minefields with selective passage for linked vessels—have confined Strait of Hormuz transits to a trickle of 3-9 commercial ships daily, as confirmed by April 29 ship-tracking data from CNN and Kpler, far below pre-war norms of 100+. This drives trader consensus to 98.2% on the 0-10 outcome for IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of arrivals on April 30. Recent failed diplomacy, including Iran's April 18 re-closure after a brief April 8 ceasefire, sustains the impasse despite US calls for a maritime coalition. A late diplomatic breakthrough or hazard clearance could enable a transit surge, though Pentagon assessments indicate months for full reopening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz a finales de abril?
¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz a finales de abril?
0-10 98.2%
10-20 1.8%
40-50 <1%
20-30 <1%
$231,038 Vol.
$231,038 Vol.
30 abr 2026
0-10
98%
10-20
2%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 98.2%
10-20 1.8%
40-50 <1%
20-30 <1%
$231,038 Vol.
$231,038 Vol.
30 abr 2026
0-10
$66,928 Vol.
98%
10-20
$30,776 Vol.
2%
20-30
$20,073 Vol.
<1%
30-40
$14,264 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$16,348 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$20,076 Vol.
<1%
60+
$62,574 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing mutual blockades amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict—US naval enforcement on Iranian ports and Iranian minefields with selective passage for linked vessels—have confined Strait of Hormuz transits to a trickle of 3-9 commercial ships daily, as confirmed by April 29 ship-tracking data from CNN and Kpler, far below pre-war norms of 100+. This drives trader consensus to 98.2% on the 0-10 outcome for IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of arrivals on April 30. Recent failed diplomacy, including Iran's April 18 re-closure after a brief April 8 ceasefire, sustains the impasse despite US calls for a maritime coalition. A late diplomatic breakthrough or hazard clearance could enable a transit surge, though Pentagon assessments indicate months for full reopening.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Volumen
$231,038Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing mutual blockades amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict—US naval enforcement on Iranian ports and Iranian minefields with selective passage for linked vessels—have confined Strait of Hormuz transits to a trickle of 3-9 commercial ships daily, as confirmed by April 29 ship-tracking data from CNN and Kpler, far below pre-war norms of 100+. This drives trader consensus to 98.2% on the 0-10 outcome for IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of arrivals on April 30. Recent failed diplomacy, including Iran's April 18 re-closure after a brief April 8 ceasefire, sustains the impasse despite US calls for a maritime coalition. A late diplomatic breakthrough or hazard clearance could enable a transit surge, though Pentagon assessments indicate months for full reopening.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$231,038Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing mutual blockades amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict—US naval enforcement on Iranian ports and Iranian minefields with selective passage for linked vessels—have confined Strait of Hormuz transits to a trickle of 3-9 commercial ships daily, as confirmed by April 29 ship-tracking data from CNN and Kpler, far below pre-war norms of 100+. This drives trader consensus to 98.2% on the 0-10 outcome for IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of arrivals on April 30. Recent failed diplomacy, including Iran's April 18 re-closure after a brief April 8 ceasefire, sustains the impasse despite US calls for a maritime coalition. A late diplomatic breakthrough or hazard clearance could enable a transit surge, though Pentagon assessments indicate months for full reopening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes