Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault on Earth exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for M9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 quake—let alone the ~14,000 km required for M10, roughly half the planet's circumference. Recent USGS data shows 2026's largest at M7.4 off Indonesia in April, with no precursors to mega-events amid continuous global seismic monitoring. While unforeseen geological discoveries could theoretically challenge this, current science deems them implausible within the market's ~8-month window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$589,737 Vol.
$589,737 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$589,737 Vol.
$589,737 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault on Earth exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for M9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 quake—let alone the ~14,000 km required for M10, roughly half the planet's circumference. Recent USGS data shows 2026's largest at M7.4 off Indonesia in April, with no precursors to mega-events amid continuous global seismic monitoring. While unforeseen geological discoveries could theoretically challenge this, current science deems them implausible within the market's ~8-month window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$589,737Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault on Earth exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for M9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 quake—let alone the ~14,000 km required for M10, roughly half the planet's circumference. Recent USGS data shows 2026's largest at M7.4 off Indonesia in April, with no precursors to mega-events amid continuous global seismic monitoring. While unforeseen geological discoveries could theoretically challenge this, current science deems them implausible within the market's ~8-month window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$589,737Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, grounded in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events are physically impossible. Moment magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault on Earth exceeds the ~1,000 km needed for M9.5—the record set by Chile's 1960 quake—let alone the ~14,000 km required for M10, roughly half the planet's circumference. Recent USGS data shows 2026's largest at M7.4 off Indonesia in April, with no precursors to mega-events amid continuous global seismic monitoring. While unforeseen geological discoveries could theoretically challenge this, current science deems them implausible within the market's ~8-month window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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