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Politics·Trump

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?

icon for Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

0% chance
Polymarket
NEW
0% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 67.5% implied probability against President Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, driven by stalled legislative progress amid fiscal constraints and GOP divisions. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in 2025 via reconciliation, extended Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions like individual rates and deductions but preserved top long-term capital gains brackets at 0%, 15%, and 20%. A March proposal to index capital gains for inflation drew warnings of $1 trillion in added debt from think tanks, while April 29 reporting notes Republican pushback on including it in an upcoming tax-and-spending package. With 2026 midterms looming and narrow Senate majorities, traders see slim odds of passage before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,526
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 67.5% implied probability against President Trump cutting long-term capital gains tax rates before 2027, driven by stalled legislative progress amid fiscal constraints and GOP divisions. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in 2025 via reconciliation, extended Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions like individual rates and deductions but preserved top long-term capital gains brackets at 0%, 15%, and 20%. A March proposal to index capital gains for inflation drew warnings of $1 trillion in added debt from think tanks, while April 29 reporting notes Republican pushback on including it in an upcoming tax-and-spending package. With 2026 midterms looming and narrow Senate majorities, traders see slim odds of passage before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,526
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 45% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 45¢, the market collectively assigns a 45% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?" is 45% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 45% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.