Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 73.5% implied probability for Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi to retail customers at $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent doubts over pricing execution amid production ramps and regulatory delays. Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer deliveries before 2027, alongside the first Cybercab rolling off Giga Texas lines and volume production starting in April, sparked brief optimism, but traders cite Tesla's history of upward price revisions—like the Model 3—and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software not yet achieving unsupervised autonomy at scale. NHTSA scrutiny on driverless approvals, supply chain bottlenecks, and fleet-priority rollout over retail sales further temper expectations, with Q2 earnings and FSD v15 benchmarks as key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$35,050 Vol.
$35,050 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$35,050 Vol.
$35,050 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 73.5% implied probability for Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi to retail customers at $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent doubts over pricing execution amid production ramps and regulatory delays. Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer deliveries before 2027, alongside the first Cybercab rolling off Giga Texas lines and volume production starting in April, sparked brief optimism, but traders cite Tesla's history of upward price revisions—like the Model 3—and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software not yet achieving unsupervised autonomy at scale. NHTSA scrutiny on driverless approvals, supply chain bottlenecks, and fleet-priority rollout over retail sales further temper expectations, with Q2 earnings and FSD v15 benchmarks as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$35,050End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 73.5% implied probability for Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi to retail customers at $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent doubts over pricing execution amid production ramps and regulatory delays. Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer deliveries before 2027, alongside the first Cybercab rolling off Giga Texas lines and volume production starting in April, sparked brief optimism, but traders cite Tesla's history of upward price revisions—like the Model 3—and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software not yet achieving unsupervised autonomy at scale. NHTSA scrutiny on driverless approvals, supply chain bottlenecks, and fleet-priority rollout over retail sales further temper expectations, with Q2 earnings and FSD v15 benchmarks as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,050End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 73.5% implied probability for Tesla selling a Cybercab robotaxi to retail customers at $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent doubts over pricing execution amid production ramps and regulatory delays. Elon Musk's February 2026 confirmation of sub-$30,000 consumer deliveries before 2027, alongside the first Cybercab rolling off Giga Texas lines and volume production starting in April, sparked brief optimism, but traders cite Tesla's history of upward price revisions—like the Model 3—and Full Self-Driving (FSD) software not yet achieving unsupervised autonomy at scale. NHTSA scrutiny on driverless approvals, supply chain bottlenecks, and fleet-priority rollout over retail sales further temper expectations, with Q2 earnings and FSD v15 benchmarks as key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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