Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to "No" disruption for AWS services by April 30, 2026, reflecting AWS Health Dashboard updates through that date showing no new operational issues or elevated error rates across core global regions like US-East-1 and EU-West-1. Ongoing "disrupted" severity incidents remain strictly isolated to Middle East regions—ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE) and ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain)—stemming from March physical infrastructure damage via drone strikes and regional conflict, with software mitigations stabilizing key services such as Amazon EC2, S3, and DynamoDB elsewhere through multi-region redundancy. This containment, bolstered by AWS's historical uptime exceeding 99.99%, drives the strong sentiment. Realistic challenges include conflict escalation hitting additional facilities, a widespread cyber exploit, or unmitigated hardware failure in high-traffic zones, though proximity to resolution limits last-minute shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$32,036 Vol.
$32,036 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$32,036 Vol.
$32,036 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to "No" disruption for AWS services by April 30, 2026, reflecting AWS Health Dashboard updates through that date showing no new operational issues or elevated error rates across core global regions like US-East-1 and EU-West-1. Ongoing "disrupted" severity incidents remain strictly isolated to Middle East regions—ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE) and ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain)—stemming from March physical infrastructure damage via drone strikes and regional conflict, with software mitigations stabilizing key services such as Amazon EC2, S3, and DynamoDB elsewhere through multi-region redundancy. This containment, bolstered by AWS's historical uptime exceeding 99.99%, drives the strong sentiment. Realistic challenges include conflict escalation hitting additional facilities, a widespread cyber exploit, or unmitigated hardware failure in high-traffic zones, though proximity to resolution limits last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ET
Volume
$32,036End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to "No" disruption for AWS services by April 30, 2026, reflecting AWS Health Dashboard updates through that date showing no new operational issues or elevated error rates across core global regions like US-East-1 and EU-West-1. Ongoing "disrupted" severity incidents remain strictly isolated to Middle East regions—ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE) and ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain)—stemming from March physical infrastructure damage via drone strikes and regional conflict, with software mitigations stabilizing key services such as Amazon EC2, S3, and DynamoDB elsewhere through multi-region redundancy. This containment, bolstered by AWS's historical uptime exceeding 99.99%, drives the strong sentiment. Realistic challenges include conflict escalation hitting additional facilities, a widespread cyber exploit, or unmitigated hardware failure in high-traffic zones, though proximity to resolution limits last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Volume
$32,041End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95% implied probability to "No" disruption for AWS services by April 30, 2026, reflecting AWS Health Dashboard updates through that date showing no new operational issues or elevated error rates across core global regions like US-East-1 and EU-West-1. Ongoing "disrupted" severity incidents remain strictly isolated to Middle East regions—ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE) and ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain)—stemming from March physical infrastructure damage via drone strikes and regional conflict, with software mitigations stabilizing key services such as Amazon EC2, S3, and DynamoDB elsewhere through multi-region redundancy. This containment, bolstered by AWS's historical uptime exceeding 99.99%, drives the strong sentiment. Realistic challenges include conflict escalation hitting additional facilities, a widespread cyber exploit, or unmitigated hardware failure in high-traffic zones, though proximity to resolution limits last-minute shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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