Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, local elections, reflecting the scarcity of contests—limited to executive mayors in select authorities like Tower Hamlets, Croydon, Newham, and Hackney—coupled with Reform's minimal candidacy. The party's Croydon hopeful withdrew in late March amid launch setbacks, while no competitive Reform entrant appears in Tower Hamlets, where incumbent Lutfur Rahman of Aspire leads polls. Despite Reform's national vote intention topping 24% in recent YouGov surveys and projected council seat surges via MRP models, first-past-the-post mayoral races favor established incumbents and Labour strongholds. Recent by-election wins bolster Reform's council momentum but not mayoral viability, with trader odds implying slim upset potential barring late surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
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May 7, 2026
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May 7, 2026
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, local elections, reflecting the scarcity of contests—limited to executive mayors in select authorities like Tower Hamlets, Croydon, Newham, and Hackney—coupled with Reform's minimal candidacy. The party's Croydon hopeful withdrew in late March amid launch setbacks, while no competitive Reform entrant appears in Tower Hamlets, where incumbent Lutfur Rahman of Aspire leads polls. Despite Reform's national vote intention topping 24% in recent YouGov surveys and projected council seat surges via MRP models, first-past-the-post mayoral races favor established incumbents and Labour strongholds. Recent by-election wins bolster Reform's council momentum but not mayoral viability, with trader odds implying slim upset potential barring late surprises.
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,916End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, local elections, reflecting the scarcity of contests—limited to executive mayors in select authorities like Tower Hamlets, Croydon, Newham, and Hackney—coupled with Reform's minimal candidacy. The party's Croydon hopeful withdrew in late March amid launch setbacks, while no competitive Reform entrant appears in Tower Hamlets, where incumbent Lutfur Rahman of Aspire leads polls. Despite Reform's national vote intention topping 24% in recent YouGov surveys and projected council seat surges via MRP models, first-past-the-post mayoral races favor established incumbents and Labour strongholds. Recent by-election wins bolster Reform's council momentum but not mayoral viability, with trader odds implying slim upset potential barring late surprises.
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$1,916End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, local elections, reflecting the scarcity of contests—limited to executive mayors in select authorities like Tower Hamlets, Croydon, Newham, and Hackney—coupled with Reform's minimal candidacy. The party's Croydon hopeful withdrew in late March amid launch setbacks, while no competitive Reform entrant appears in Tower Hamlets, where incumbent Lutfur Rahman of Aspire leads polls. Despite Reform's national vote intention topping 24% in recent YouGov surveys and projected council seat surges via MRP models, first-past-the-post mayoral races favor established incumbents and Labour strongholds. Recent by-election wins bolster Reform's council momentum but not mayoral viability, with trader odds implying slim upset potential barring late surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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