John Fleming advanced from Louisiana’s May 16 Republican primary for U.S. Senate into a June 27 runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow, finishing second with roughly 28 percent after incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy placed third. Fleming has publicly declined multiple offers of administration roles, including a CDC deputy director position, and continues self-funding his campaign without issuing any withdrawal statements. Primary results and his post-election schedule show no procedural or financial barriers that would force an exit before the runoff. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent implied probability that Fleming remains in the contest through at least the June ballot.