The 85% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme historical rarity of these events—only four have occurred since reliable records began (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—combined with NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season. Forecasters project just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), reflecting conditions like potential El Niño influences that typically suppress intensification. Category 5 systems, requiring sustained winds of at least 157 mph at landfall, represent a narrow subset that seldom maintains peak strength over US coasts even in active years. With the season only weeks old and peak months ahead, traders weigh the limited remaining window and low baseline odds against any rapid model shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$137,131 Vol.
$137,131 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$137,131 Vol.
$137,131 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 85% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme historical rarity of these events—only four have occurred since reliable records began (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—combined with NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season. Forecasters project just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), reflecting conditions like potential El Niño influences that typically suppress intensification. Category 5 systems, requiring sustained winds of at least 157 mph at landfall, represent a narrow subset that seldom maintains peak strength over US coasts even in active years. With the season only weeks old and peak months ahead, traders weigh the limited remaining window and low baseline odds against any rapid model shifts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$137,131End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 85% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme historical rarity of these events—only four have occurred since reliable records began (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—combined with NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season. Forecasters project just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), reflecting conditions like potential El Niño influences that typically suppress intensification. Category 5 systems, requiring sustained winds of at least 157 mph at landfall, represent a narrow subset that seldom maintains peak strength over US coasts even in active years. With the season only weeks old and peak months ahead, traders weigh the limited remaining window and low baseline odds against any rapid model shifts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$137,131End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 85% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall in the US before 2027 stems primarily from the extreme historical rarity of these events—only four have occurred since reliable records began (Labor Day 1935, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, and Michael 2018)—combined with NOAA’s below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic season. Forecasters project just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3–5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), reflecting conditions like potential El Niño influences that typically suppress intensification. Category 5 systems, requiring sustained winds of at least 157 mph at landfall, represent a narrow subset that seldom maintains peak strength over US coasts even in active years. With the season only weeks old and peak months ahead, traders weigh the limited remaining window and low baseline odds against any rapid model shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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