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Politics·Culture

Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

icon for Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?
Politics·Culture

Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

Apr 30

May 31

Apr 30

May 31

$71,530 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$71,530 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Barack Obama

Barack Obama

$2,889 Vol.

79%

icon for Tucker Carlson

Tucker Carlson

$1,079 Vol.

70%

icon for Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$477 Vol.

72%

icon for Megyn Kelly

Megyn Kelly

$3,113 Vol.

62%

icon for Freidrich Merz

Freidrich Merz

$0 Vol.

51%

icon for Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron

$0 Vol.

51%

icon for Norah O'Donnell

Norah O'Donnell

$0 Vol.

50%

icon for Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer

$0 Vol.

50%

icon for Kaitlan Collins

Kaitlan Collins

$0 Vol.

50%

icon for Alex Jones

Alex Jones

$1 Vol.

43%

icon for Pam Bondi

Pam Bondi

$8 Vol.

35%

icon for Keir Starmer

Keir Starmer

$3,070 Vol.

33%

icon for Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani

$255 Vol.

33%

icon for Nicolás Maduro

Nicolás Maduro

$3,771 Vol.

26%

icon for Pope Leo XIV

Pope Leo XIV

$2,193 Vol.

25%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$181 Vol.

18%

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Viktor Orbán

$153 Vol.

11%

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J.D. Vance

$6,099 Vol.

6%

icon for Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

$113 Vol.

5%

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Xi Jinping

$657 Vol.

3%

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Vladimir Putin

$1,275 Vol.

3%

icon for Melania Trump

Melania Trump

$1,471 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices near-certainty (96-99%) on President Trump publicly insulting media critics Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Jimmy Kimmel by May 31, driven by his April 9 Truth Social rant calling them and allies like Alex Jones and Marjorie Taylor Greene "stupid losers" for opposing Iran war escalation amid U.S. airstrikes since late February. High odds also reflect frequent press interactions where Trump mocks reporters as "piggy" or traitors, as seen in recent White House briefings. Lower probabilities trail for Pope Leo XIV (28%) after mid-April attacks over foreign policy criticism, and foreign leaders like Nicolás Maduro (53%), with ongoing social media threats tied to the conflict. Daily Truth Social posts and upcoming press events heighten risks for top options, underscoring Trump's pattern of targeting domestic detractors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,530
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices near-certainty (96-99%) on President Trump publicly insulting media critics Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Jimmy Kimmel by May 31, driven by his April 9 Truth Social rant calling them and allies like Alex Jones and Marjorie Taylor Greene "stupid losers" for opposing Iran war escalation amid U.S. airstrikes since late February. High odds also reflect frequent press interactions where Trump mocks reporters as "piggy" or traitors, as seen in recent White House briefings. Lower probabilities trail for Pope Leo XIV (28%) after mid-April attacks over foreign policy criticism, and foreign leaders like Nicolás Maduro (53%), with ongoing social media threats tied to the conflict. Daily Truth Social posts and upcoming press events heighten risks for top options, underscoring Trump's pattern of targeting domestic detractors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,530
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 26 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Candace Owens" at 100%, followed by "Joe Biden" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?" has generated $71.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?," browse the 26 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?" is "Candace Owens" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joe Biden" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.