Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.5% "No" that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by the April 30 deadline, driven by the absence of any new critical statements from Trump in the final 24 hours despite prior tensions. The pontiff, elected in May 2025 as the first American pope (Robert Francis Prevost), clashed publicly with Trump in mid-April over U.S. policy in the Iran war, prompting Trump's social media rebukes labeling the pope "weak." Recent polling shows Pope Leo XIV favored among Catholic voters, including Latinos, amid midterm pressures, but no escalation has occurred today. A late Truth Social post or interview before midnight could still shift odds, though traders see low risk given the quiet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,833 Vol.
$21,833 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$21,833 Vol.
$21,833 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.5% "No" that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by the April 30 deadline, driven by the absence of any new critical statements from Trump in the final 24 hours despite prior tensions. The pontiff, elected in May 2025 as the first American pope (Robert Francis Prevost), clashed publicly with Trump in mid-April over U.S. policy in the Iran war, prompting Trump's social media rebukes labeling the pope "weak." Recent polling shows Pope Leo XIV favored among Catholic voters, including Latinos, amid midterm pressures, but no escalation has occurred today. A late Truth Social post or interview before midnight could still shift odds, though traders see low risk given the quiet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volume
$21,833End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.5% "No" that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by the April 30 deadline, driven by the absence of any new critical statements from Trump in the final 24 hours despite prior tensions. The pontiff, elected in May 2025 as the first American pope (Robert Francis Prevost), clashed publicly with Trump in mid-April over U.S. policy in the Iran war, prompting Trump's social media rebukes labeling the pope "weak." Recent polling shows Pope Leo XIV favored among Catholic voters, including Latinos, amid midterm pressures, but no escalation has occurred today. A late Truth Social post or interview before midnight could still shift odds, though traders see low risk given the quiet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,833End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 99.5% "No" that President Trump will not disparage Pope Leo XIV by the April 30 deadline, driven by the absence of any new critical statements from Trump in the final 24 hours despite prior tensions. The pontiff, elected in May 2025 as the first American pope (Robert Francis Prevost), clashed publicly with Trump in mid-April over U.S. policy in the Iran war, prompting Trump's social media rebukes labeling the pope "weak." Recent polling shows Pope Leo XIV favored among Catholic voters, including Latinos, amid midterm pressures, but no escalation has occurred today. A late Truth Social post or interview before midnight could still shift odds, though traders see low risk given the quiet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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