Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the Trump administration's ongoing cabinet shakeup, with recent high-profile departures—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 21 and Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2—intensifying speculation ahead of 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads as Director of National Intelligence due to reports of White House pressure for her to resign, including Trump polling advisers on replacements, though allies like Roger Stone have temporarily intervened. Chris Wright's strong odds stem from public policy clashes with Trump on energy prices and international commitments. The tight race persists amid broad rumors targeting multiple officials like Kelly Loeffler and Susie Wiles, with "None before 2027" viable if no further exits materialize; separation could arise from a leaked resignation, presidential firing announcement, or midterm strategy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTulsi Gabbard 41%
Chris Wright 28.6%
None before 2027 28%
Kelly Loeffler 24.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
41%
Chris Wright
29%
None before 2027
28%
Kelly Loeffler
25%
Susie Wiles
23%
Howard Lutnick
20%
Scott Bessent
13%
Pete Hegseth
7%
J.D. Vance
7%
Sean Duffy
5%
Scott Turner
5%
Doug Collins
4%
Lee Zeldin
4%
Brooke Rollins
3%
Mike Waltz
3%
Russell T. Vought
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Doug Burgum
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard 41%
Chris Wright 28.6%
None before 2027 28%
Kelly Loeffler 24.6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Tulsi Gabbard
$2,964 Vol.
41%
Chris Wright
$290 Vol.
29%
None before 2027
$220 Vol.
28%
Kelly Loeffler
$284 Vol.
25%
Susie Wiles
$263 Vol.
23%
Howard Lutnick
$1,211 Vol.
20%
Scott Bessent
$233 Vol.
13%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Vol.
7%
J.D. Vance
$415 Vol.
7%
Sean Duffy
$219 Vol.
5%
Scott Turner
$332 Vol.
5%
Doug Collins
$318 Vol.
4%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Vol.
4%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Vol.
3%
Mike Waltz
$270 Vol.
3%
Russell T. Vought
$238 Vol.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$257 Vol.
3%
Doug Burgum
$281 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$197 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$239 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$271 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the Trump administration's ongoing cabinet shakeup, with recent high-profile departures—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 21 and Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2—intensifying speculation ahead of 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads as Director of National Intelligence due to reports of White House pressure for her to resign, including Trump polling advisers on replacements, though allies like Roger Stone have temporarily intervened. Chris Wright's strong odds stem from public policy clashes with Trump on energy prices and international commitments. The tight race persists amid broad rumors targeting multiple officials like Kelly Loeffler and Susie Wiles, with "None before 2027" viable if no further exits materialize; separation could arise from a leaked resignation, presidential firing announcement, or midterm strategy shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Volume
$9,917End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the Trump administration's ongoing cabinet shakeup, with recent high-profile departures—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 21 and Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2—intensifying speculation ahead of 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads as Director of National Intelligence due to reports of White House pressure for her to resign, including Trump polling advisers on replacements, though allies like Roger Stone have temporarily intervened. Chris Wright's strong odds stem from public policy clashes with Trump on energy prices and international commitments. The tight race persists amid broad rumors targeting multiple officials like Kelly Loeffler and Susie Wiles, with "None before 2027" viable if no further exits materialize; separation could arise from a leaked resignation, presidential firing announcement, or midterm strategy shifts.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$9,917End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in the Trump administration's ongoing cabinet shakeup, with recent high-profile departures—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 21 and Attorney General Pam Bondi's ouster on April 2—intensifying speculation ahead of 2026 midterms. Tulsi Gabbard leads as Director of National Intelligence due to reports of White House pressure for her to resign, including Trump polling advisers on replacements, though allies like Roger Stone have temporarily intervened. Chris Wright's strong odds stem from public policy clashes with Trump on energy prices and international commitments. The tight race persists amid broad rumors targeting multiple officials like Kelly Loeffler and Susie Wiles, with "None before 2027" viable if no further exits materialize; separation could arise from a leaked resignation, presidential firing announcement, or midterm strategy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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