Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus the pending DNI exit, has elevated trader focus on officials facing performance questions or internal friction. Susie Wiles and Pete Hegseth lead at near parity because both hold high-visibility roles—White House chief of staff and defense secretary—where policy execution amid the Iran conflict and personnel management draw scrutiny, while Mike Waltz sits close behind after prior national security adviser tensions. Lee Zeldin and others trail as lower-profile positions show less immediate pressure. The tight spread among the top four reflects ongoing uncertainty over which friction points or external events will prompt the next change, with separation likely hinging on upcoming legislative or diplomatic milestones rather than any single confirmed development.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJohn Ratcliffe 36.1%
Mike Waltz 34.1%
Lee Zeldin 32%
Howard Lutnick 31%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
John Ratcliffe
36%
Mike Waltz
34%
Lee Zeldin
32%
Howard Lutnick
31%
Linda McMahon
19%
Russell T. Vought
18%
Jamieson Greer
18%
None before 2027
16%
Sean Duffy
19%
Scott Bessent
26%
Kelly Loeffler
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Doug Collins
5%
Marco Rubio
5%
J.D. Vance
5%
Brooke Rollins
15%
Chris Wright
4%
Scott Turner
1%
Pete Hegseth
-
Doug Burgum
-
Susie Wiles
37%
John Ratcliffe 36.1%
Mike Waltz 34.1%
Lee Zeldin 32%
Howard Lutnick 31%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
John Ratcliffe
$115 Vol.
36%
Mike Waltz
$126 Vol.
34%
Lee Zeldin
$132 Vol.
32%
Howard Lutnick
$250 Vol.
31%
Linda McMahon
$209 Vol.
19%
Russell T. Vought
$150 Vol.
18%
Jamieson Greer
$80 Vol.
18%
None before 2027
$226 Vol.
16%
Sean Duffy
$162 Vol.
19%
Scott Bessent
$469 Vol.
26%
Kelly Loeffler
$308 Vol.
6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$101 Vol.
5%
Doug Collins
$76 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$75 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$171 Vol.
5%
Brooke Rollins
$230 Vol.
15%
Chris Wright
$132 Vol.
4%
Scott Turner
$80 Vol.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Vol.
-
Doug Burgum
$171 Vol.
-
Susie Wiles
$227 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus the pending DNI exit, has elevated trader focus on officials facing performance questions or internal friction. Susie Wiles and Pete Hegseth lead at near parity because both hold high-visibility roles—White House chief of staff and defense secretary—where policy execution amid the Iran conflict and personnel management draw scrutiny, while Mike Waltz sits close behind after prior national security adviser tensions. Lee Zeldin and others trail as lower-profile positions show less immediate pressure. The tight spread among the top four reflects ongoing uncertainty over which friction points or external events will prompt the next change, with separation likely hinging on upcoming legislative or diplomatic milestones rather than any single confirmed development.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$3,607Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus the pending DNI exit, has elevated trader focus on officials facing performance questions or internal friction. Susie Wiles and Pete Hegseth lead at near parity because both hold high-visibility roles—White House chief of staff and defense secretary—where policy execution amid the Iran conflict and personnel management draw scrutiny, while Mike Waltz sits close behind after prior national security adviser tensions. Lee Zeldin and others trail as lower-profile positions show less immediate pressure. The tight spread among the top four reflects ongoing uncertainty over which friction points or external events will prompt the next change, with separation likely hinging on upcoming legislative or diplomatic milestones rather than any single confirmed development.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$3,607Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover, including the ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer plus the pending DNI exit, has elevated trader focus on officials facing performance questions or internal friction. Susie Wiles and Pete Hegseth lead at near parity because both hold high-visibility roles—White House chief of staff and defense secretary—where policy execution amid the Iran conflict and personnel management draw scrutiny, while Mike Waltz sits close behind after prior national security adviser tensions. Lee Zeldin and others trail as lower-profile positions show less immediate pressure. The tight spread among the top four reflects ongoing uncertainty over which friction points or external events will prompt the next change, with separation likely hinging on upcoming legislative or diplomatic milestones rather than any single confirmed development.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes