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Politics·London

Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?

icon for Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?
Politics·London

Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?

Labour 85%

Green 9%

Liberal Democrats 3.8%

Conservative 2.4%

Polymarket

$61,723 Vol.

Labour 85%

Green 9%

Liberal Democrats 3.8%

Conservative 2.4%

Polymarket

$61,723 Vol.

icon for Labour

Labour

$32,717 Vol.

85%

icon for Green

Green

$10,244 Vol.

9%

icon for Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats

$7,707 Vol.

4%

icon for Conservative

Conservative

$4,796 Vol.

2%

icon for Reform

Reform

$6,259 Vol.

1%

Local elections in London, UK are currently scheduled for May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most London borough councils as a result of this election. Control is defined as having more than half of the voting councillors of a London borough council. Any executive positions, like Mayor, will not count. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of councils controlled by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of councils controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant London borough council elections, once those results are official. This market may resolve to the listed party as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of councils controlled in these elections. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 London local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 London local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Labour's 84.5% implied probability to win control of the most London borough councils reflects trader consensus from recent MRP models like YouGov's April 22 projection, which shows the party leading vote shares in 15 of 32 boroughs despite a 16-point citywide drop to 26%, amid surging Greens (22%, up 10 points) targeting inner strongholds like Hackney and Lewisham, and Reform UK (14%) eroding Conservative support in outer areas such as Havering and Bexley. Close races in half the councils and first-past-the-post dynamics favor Labour's incumbency for outright majorities in more boroughs than rivals, with PollCheck and Cavendish models projecting Labour losses of 6-11 controls from 21 but still topping fragmented outcomes featuring no-overall-control results. Greens' 9% odds capture potential breakthroughs in 3-4 councils. Elections occur May 7.

Local elections in London, UK are currently scheduled for May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most London borough councils as a result of this election.

Control is defined as having more than half of the voting councillors of a London borough council. Any executive positions, like Mayor, will not count.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of councils controlled by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of councils controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant London borough council elections, once those results are official. This market may resolve to the listed party as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of councils controlled in these elections. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 London local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 London local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$61,723
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Local elections in London, UK are currently scheduled for May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most London borough councils as a result of this election. Control is defined as having more than half of the voting councillors of a London borough council. Any executive positions, like Mayor, will not count. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of councils controlled by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of councils controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant London borough council elections, once those results are official. This market may resolve to the listed party as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of councils controlled in these elections. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 London local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 London local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Local elections in London, UK are currently scheduled for May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most London borough councils as a result of this election. Control is defined as having more than half of the voting councillors of a London borough council. Any executive positions, like Mayor, will not count. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of councils controlled by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of councils controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant London borough council elections, once those results are official. This market may resolve to the listed party as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of councils controlled in these elections. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 London local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 London local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Labour's 84.5% implied probability to win control of the most London borough councils reflects trader consensus from recent MRP models like YouGov's April 22 projection, which shows the party leading vote shares in 15 of 32 boroughs despite a 16-point citywide drop to 26%, amid surging Greens (22%, up 10 points) targeting inner strongholds like Hackney and Lewisham, and Reform UK (14%) eroding Conservative support in outer areas such as Havering and Bexley. Close races in half the councils and first-past-the-post dynamics favor Labour's incumbency for outright majorities in more boroughs than rivals, with PollCheck and Cavendish models projecting Labour losses of 6-11 controls from 21 but still topping fragmented outcomes featuring no-overall-control results. Greens' 9% odds capture potential breakthroughs in 3-4 councils. Elections occur May 7.

Local elections in London, UK are currently scheduled for May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most London borough councils as a result of this election.

Control is defined as having more than half of the voting councillors of a London borough council. Any executive positions, like Mayor, will not count.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of councils controlled by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of councils controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant London borough council elections, once those results are official. This market may resolve to the listed party as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of councils controlled in these elections. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 London local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 London local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$61,723
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Local elections in London, UK are currently scheduled for May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most London borough councils as a result of this election. Control is defined as having more than half of the voting councillors of a London borough council. Any executive positions, like Mayor, will not count. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of councils controlled by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of councils controlled, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant London borough council elections, once those results are official. This market may resolve to the listed party as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of councils controlled in these elections. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 London local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 London local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

Related

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icon for Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

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icon for Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Labour" at 85%, followed by "Green" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?" has generated $61.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?" is "Labour" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Green" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.