Recent U.S.-China trade talks, including the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and May 2026 Beijing summit establishing bilateral trade and investment boards, have produced tariff suspensions and purchase commitments that traders view as steps toward a broader accord. The current truce extends reciprocal tariff reductions until November 2026, with ongoing negotiations targeting reciprocal cuts on at least $30 billion in goods and addressing critical minerals, soybeans, and enforcement issues. These developments, alongside scheduled board meetings and the approaching year-end deadline, underpin the 77% implied probability for an agreement by December 31. Market pricing reflects trader assessments of continued diplomatic momentum rather than guarantees of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$17,799 Vol.
$17,799 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$17,799 Vol.
$17,799 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade talks, including the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and May 2026 Beijing summit establishing bilateral trade and investment boards, have produced tariff suspensions and purchase commitments that traders view as steps toward a broader accord. The current truce extends reciprocal tariff reductions until November 2026, with ongoing negotiations targeting reciprocal cuts on at least $30 billion in goods and addressing critical minerals, soybeans, and enforcement issues. These developments, alongside scheduled board meetings and the approaching year-end deadline, underpin the 77% implied probability for an agreement by December 31. Market pricing reflects trader assessments of continued diplomatic momentum rather than guarantees of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$17,799End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade talks, including the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and May 2026 Beijing summit establishing bilateral trade and investment boards, have produced tariff suspensions and purchase commitments that traders view as steps toward a broader accord. The current truce extends reciprocal tariff reductions until November 2026, with ongoing negotiations targeting reciprocal cuts on at least $30 billion in goods and addressing critical minerals, soybeans, and enforcement issues. These developments, alongside scheduled board meetings and the approaching year-end deadline, underpin the 77% implied probability for an agreement by December 31. Market pricing reflects trader assessments of continued diplomatic momentum rather than guarantees of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$17,799End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China trade talks, including the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur framework and May 2026 Beijing summit establishing bilateral trade and investment boards, have produced tariff suspensions and purchase commitments that traders view as steps toward a broader accord. The current truce extends reciprocal tariff reductions until November 2026, with ongoing negotiations targeting reciprocal cuts on at least $30 billion in goods and addressing critical minerals, soybeans, and enforcement issues. These developments, alongside scheduled board meetings and the approaching year-end deadline, underpin the 77% implied probability for an agreement by December 31. Market pricing reflects trader assessments of continued diplomatic momentum rather than guarantees of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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