The heavy trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026 stems from the absence of any official diplomatic statements, policy documents, or actions from the Trump administration endorsing him in that role. President Trump has publicly described Pahlavi as a "very nice person" while questioning his capacity to secure broad domestic backing inside Iran, favoring instead a leader already based there. Although Pahlavi has met administration envoys, addressed events such as CPAC, and promoted transition plans amid U.S.-Israel military pressure on the Islamic Republic, standard U.S. policy continues to avoid formally elevating exiled opposition figures absent clear internal consolidation. These factors sustain the elevated probability assigned to no recognition occurring.