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Politics·Primaries

TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

icon for TX-30 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

Everett Jackson 86.9%

Sholdon Daniels 9%

Gregor Heise 1.1%

Nils Walker <1%

Polymarket

$23,664 Vol.

Everett Jackson 86.9%

Sholdon Daniels 9%

Gregor Heise 1.1%

Nils Walker <1%

Polymarket

$23,664 Vol.

Everett Jackson

$2,477 Vol.

87%

Sholdon Daniels

$9,485 Vol.

9%

Gregor Heise

$10,443 Vol.

1%

Nils Walker

$1,259 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Everett Jackson's commanding lead in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 30th Congressional District—securing about 37% of the vote despite Sholdon Daniels' 23-to-1 fundraising advantage—has driven trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of his winning the May 26 runoff. Jackson's stronger primary performance signals superior grassroots mobilization in this low-turnout contest, where voter enthusiasm often favors the top vote-getter, outweighing Daniels' financial edge and positioning the Dallas attorney at 11%. Eliminated candidates Gregor Heise and Nils Walker trail far behind at 1.1% and 0.5%, reflecting their minimal primary showings. With early voting approaching amid a Democratic-leaning district (rated D+25), no public polls have emerged to shift odds, leaving Jackson's momentum as the dominant factor.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$23,664
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Everett Jackson's commanding lead in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas' 30th Congressional District—securing about 37% of the vote despite Sholdon Daniels' 23-to-1 fundraising advantage—has driven trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of his winning the May 26 runoff. Jackson's stronger primary performance signals superior grassroots mobilization in this low-turnout contest, where voter enthusiasm often favors the top vote-getter, outweighing Daniels' financial edge and positioning the Dallas attorney at 11%. Eliminated candidates Gregor Heise and Nils Walker trail far behind at 1.1% and 0.5%, reflecting their minimal primary showings. With early voting approaching amid a Democratic-leaning district (rated D+25), no public polls have emerged to shift odds, leaving Jackson's momentum as the dominant factor.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$23,664
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Everett Jackson" at 87%, followed by "Sholdon Daniels" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $23.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" is "Everett Jackson" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sholdon Daniels" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-30 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.