Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability for "No" on OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence (AGI)—defined as highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—before 2027, driven by the absence of any official milestone claim amid rapid but incremental progress. OpenAI's April 26, 2026, update to its core principles emphasized safe scaling and geopolitical considerations over imminent AGI triggers, removing prior Microsoft "step-aside" clauses tied to the benchmark, signaling a more measured path. Recent compute expansions like Stargate bolster infrastructure for future large language models, yet roadmaps point to AI "research interns" by late 2026 and full capabilities nearer 2028, tempering expectations. Key catalysts include upcoming model releases or benchmarks, though historical delays and definitional debates sustain skepticism.