New York’s 25th congressional district maintains a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and carries consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its Rochester-area electorate and voting patterns in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018, faces only token primary opposition on June 23 and enters the general election with a substantial fundraising edge and established name recognition against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. These structural advantages underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability of a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant health event involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment could still narrow the margin, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-25
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-25
$25,090 Vol.
$25,090 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
4%
$25,090 Vol.
$25,090 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,992 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$10,098 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 25th congressional district maintains a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and carries consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its Rochester-area electorate and voting patterns in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018, faces only token primary opposition on June 23 and enters the general election with a substantial fundraising edge and established name recognition against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. These structural advantages underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability of a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant health event involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment could still narrow the margin, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$25,090Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 25th congressional district maintains a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and carries consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its Rochester-area electorate and voting patterns in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018, faces only token primary opposition on June 23 and enters the general election with a substantial fundraising edge and established name recognition against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. These structural advantages underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability of a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant health event involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment could still narrow the margin, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$25,090Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 25th congressional district maintains a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and carries consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters, reflecting its Rochester-area electorate and voting patterns in recent cycles. Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018, faces only token primary opposition on June 23 and enters the general election with a substantial fundraising edge and established name recognition against Republican nominee Virginia McIntyre. These structural advantages underpin trader consensus around a 93 percent probability of a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant health event involving the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican national environment could still narrow the margin, though historical results and current ratings indicate limited realistic paths to an upset.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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