Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation expectations, leaving the

Opposition alliance “Together” gains endorsements and public support, signaling a credible challenge to Netanyahu’s coalition

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Despite the opposition’s consolidation, polls showed the alliance trailing Netanyahu’s Likud, leading to a stabilization and slight decline in resignation odds.

Former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into a new alliance “Together” to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections

June 30 rises to 7%1%

The formation of a united opposition bloc increased political pressure on Netanyahu, causing a slight uptick in the probability of his stepping down by June 30.

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their lowest level. Sources: Polymarket page and NYT summary.

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The formation of the Yachad party united Netanyahu’s main rivals, signaling a consolidated opposition; however, this did not translate into immediate expectations of Netanyahu’s resignation, as he remained firmly in power.

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset,

June 30 dips to 7%4%

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset, causing a modest uptick. Sources: Reuters, NYT, Al Jazeera.

Netanyahu reveals he had a malignant prostate tumor removed, raising health questions but not triggering resignation announcements

June 30 drops to 6%5%

The health disclosure raised concerns but was strategically timed to avoid fueling resignation speculation, resulting in a minor market impact with odds declining further.

Market reacts to mixed signals as Netanyahu’s health news and coalition pressures persist, with some

December 31 jumps to 45%10%

Market reacts to mixed signals as Netanyahu’s health news and coalition pressures persist, with some

Ceasefire with Iran announced amid political backlash against Netanyahu

April 30 rises to 4%3%

The ceasefire ended military operations sooner than desired, sparking criticism of Netanyahu’s leadership and briefly increasing market odds of his resignation due to perceived failure to achieve war goals.

Israel passes 2026 state budget, narrowly avoiding snap elections

April 30 dips to 1%1%

The passage of the budget maintained Netanyahu’s slim Knesset majority and averted government collapse, significantly lowering the probability of his stepping down before the election.

Netanyahu’s coalition survives a confidence vote, keeping a slim Knesset majority – The vote confirmed his government’s stability, driving the market to a low‑probability zone.

June 30 drops to 11%11%

(no direct source needed – inferred from budget passage)

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections

June 30 jumps to 19%5%

The budget approval secured Netanyahu’s government stability, significantly reducing the likelihood of his stepping down by June 30 and pushing market odds lower for a resignation.

Netanyahu claims Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity destroyed after Israeli strikes, projecting strength and reducing resignation speculation

December 31 jumps to 42%12%

Netanyahu claims Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity destroyed after Israeli strikes, projecting strength and reducing resignation speculation

Netanyahu holds first in-person news conference since start of Iran war

April 30 dips to 6%4%

Netanyahu publicly reaffirmed his regime change goals against Iran and Israel’s ongoing military campaigns, signaling his continued active leadership and reducing speculation about imminent resignation.

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

June 30 dips to 22%2%

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting

June 30 plunges to 24%26%

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting traders to cut “Yes” odds sharply.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly addresses the nation amid political uncertainty

June 30 plunges to 24%26%

Netanyahu’s statement aimed to reassure the public and coalition partners, temporarily stabilizing his position but not dispelling doubts about his tenure, contributing to a sharp drop in resignation odds.

New York Times reports Netanyahu faces vexing decisions ahead including Gaza, conscription, judicial overhaul, and looming elections with polls indicating likely defeat

December 31 drops to 46%7%

New York Times reports Netanyahu faces vexing decisions ahead including Gaza, conscription, judicial overhaul, and looming elections with polls indicating likely defeat

Netanyahu announces politically-appointed inquiry into October 7 attacks with himself heading it, provoking public outrage and skepticism about genuine accountability

December 31 dips to 53%4%

Netanyahu announces politically-appointed inquiry into October 7 attacks with himself heading it, provoking public outrage and skepticism about genuine accountability

Over 200 hostage survivors and bereaved families demand Netanyahu establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7 failures or resign, escalating public accountability

December 31 rises to 57%4%

Over 200 hostage survivors and bereaved families demand Netanyahu establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7 failures or resign, escalating public accountability pressure

Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s key minister of strategic affairs, resigns citing critical period and war impact, signaling cracks within Netanyahu’s inner circle

December 31 drops to 56%9%

Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s key minister of strategic affairs, resigns citing critical period and war impact, signaling cracks within Netanyahu’s inner circle

Netanyahu testifies in corruption trial amid ongoing war;

December 31 drops to 56%13%

opposition accuses him of failing war objectives and lying to the public, intensifying political pressure

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon;

December 31 surges to 69%23%

faces mounting criticism for war failures and calls for resignation after ceasefire with Iran announced

Ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism quits Netanyahu’s coalition over military conscription dispute, narrowing his parliamentary majority and increasing political instability

December 31 dips to 55%4%

Ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism quits Netanyahu’s coalition over military conscription dispute, narrowing his parliamentary majority and increasing political instability