Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Maryland's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by the state's deep Democratic lean—supermajorities in the legislature, all statewide offices held by Democrats, and no incumbent Democrat losing reelection since 1950—coupled with his likely easy June 23 primary victory over minor challenger Eric Felber. Recent early April polls reflect an approval dip below 50% amid tax hikes, budget deficits, and utility cost surges, yet Moore leads generic Republicans by 22 points per January Gonzales Research data, while a fragmented nine-candidate GOP primary lacks fundraising heavyweights. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal eroding Moore's credibility, a unified Republican surge post-primary, or national midterm dynamics boosting GOP turnout, though historical precedents and structural advantages pose steep barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,491 Vol.
$15,491 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
94%
Republican
6%
$15,491 Vol.
$15,491 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$6,775 Vol.
94%
Republican
$8,716 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Maryland's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by the state's deep Democratic lean—supermajorities in the legislature, all statewide offices held by Democrats, and no incumbent Democrat losing reelection since 1950—coupled with his likely easy June 23 primary victory over minor challenger Eric Felber. Recent early April polls reflect an approval dip below 50% amid tax hikes, budget deficits, and utility cost surges, yet Moore leads generic Republicans by 22 points per January Gonzales Research data, while a fragmented nine-candidate GOP primary lacks fundraising heavyweights. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal eroding Moore's credibility, a unified Republican surge post-primary, or national midterm dynamics boosting GOP turnout, though historical precedents and structural advantages pose steep barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$15,491End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Maryland's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by the state's deep Democratic lean—supermajorities in the legislature, all statewide offices held by Democrats, and no incumbent Democrat losing reelection since 1950—coupled with his likely easy June 23 primary victory over minor challenger Eric Felber. Recent early April polls reflect an approval dip below 50% amid tax hikes, budget deficits, and utility cost surges, yet Moore leads generic Republicans by 22 points per January Gonzales Research data, while a fragmented nine-candidate GOP primary lacks fundraising heavyweights. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal eroding Moore's credibility, a unified Republican surge post-primary, or national midterm dynamics boosting GOP turnout, though historical precedents and structural advantages pose steep barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$15,491End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore commands trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Maryland's November 3, 2026, gubernatorial election, driven by the state's deep Democratic lean—supermajorities in the legislature, all statewide offices held by Democrats, and no incumbent Democrat losing reelection since 1950—coupled with his likely easy June 23 primary victory over minor challenger Eric Felber. Recent early April polls reflect an approval dip below 50% amid tax hikes, budget deficits, and utility cost surges, yet Moore leads generic Republicans by 22 points per January Gonzales Research data, while a fragmented nine-candidate GOP primary lacks fundraising heavyweights. Scenarios to upend this include a scandal eroding Moore's credibility, a unified Republican surge post-primary, or national midterm dynamics boosting GOP turnout, though historical precedents and structural advantages pose steep barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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