**Forecast models from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS currently cluster the Paris overnight low for June 16 around 17–19 °C**, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that limits radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread, with some solutions dipping to 16 °C or below if boundary-layer mixing weakens overnight, while others hold near 18–19 °C amid warmer-than-average soil and 850 hPa temperatures. This tight clustering around typical June nocturnal values—elevated by the ongoing warm spell—explains why 18 °C and 19 °C bins lead the market while the “16 °C or below” outcome retains meaningful probability ahead of final 00 UTC and 12 UTC guidance. Traders weigh the narrow resolution window and potential last-model adjustments to the minimum temperature recorded at official Paris stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on June 16?
Lowest temperature in Paris on June 16?
19°C 31%
18°C 25%
17°C 20%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
16°C or below
6%
17°C
20%
18°C
25%
19°C
31%
20°C
13%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
19°C 31%
18°C 25%
17°C 20%
20°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
16°C or below
$341 Vol.
6%
17°C
$314 Vol.
20%
18°C
$393 Vol.
25%
19°C
$843 Vol.
31%
20°C
$676 Vol.
13%
21°C
$712 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$548 Vol.
1%
23°C
$505 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$682 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$687 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS currently cluster the Paris overnight low for June 16 around 17–19 °C**, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that limits radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread, with some solutions dipping to 16 °C or below if boundary-layer mixing weakens overnight, while others hold near 18–19 °C amid warmer-than-average soil and 850 hPa temperatures. This tight clustering around typical June nocturnal values—elevated by the ongoing warm spell—explains why 18 °C and 19 °C bins lead the market while the “16 °C or below” outcome retains meaningful probability ahead of final 00 UTC and 12 UTC guidance. Traders weigh the narrow resolution window and potential last-model adjustments to the minimum temperature recorded at official Paris stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5,967End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS currently cluster the Paris overnight low for June 16 around 17–19 °C**, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that limits radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread, with some solutions dipping to 16 °C or below if boundary-layer mixing weakens overnight, while others hold near 18–19 °C amid warmer-than-average soil and 850 hPa temperatures. This tight clustering around typical June nocturnal values—elevated by the ongoing warm spell—explains why 18 °C and 19 °C bins lead the market while the “16 °C or below” outcome retains meaningful probability ahead of final 00 UTC and 12 UTC guidance. Traders weigh the narrow resolution window and potential last-model adjustments to the minimum temperature recorded at official Paris stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,967End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS currently cluster the Paris overnight low for June 16 around 17–19 °C**, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that limits radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread, with some solutions dipping to 16 °C or below if boundary-layer mixing weakens overnight, while others hold near 18–19 °C amid warmer-than-average soil and 850 hPa temperatures. This tight clustering around typical June nocturnal values—elevated by the ongoing warm spell—explains why 18 °C and 19 °C bins lead the market while the “16 °C or below” outcome retains meaningful probability ahead of final 00 UTC and 12 UTC guidance. Traders weigh the narrow resolution window and potential last-model adjustments to the minimum temperature recorded at official Paris stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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