The market assigns a 71.5% probability to fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account between May 19 and May 26, reflecting its established pattern of low-frequency archival reposts since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s reported martyrdom in late February 2026. The account, now managed under the office of successor Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued only occasional statements on topics such as regional tensions, the Persian Gulf, and nuclear policy, often recycling prior content rather than generating new daily output. Recent developments, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s May statements on U.S. presence and strategic assets, have not triggered sustained posting surges, consistent with activity levels observed in similar prior windows. Traders price this outcome based on the account’s structural shift to sporadic use amid the post-assassination transition and absence of scheduled events likely to prompt higher volume in the resolution period.