Recent tracking of Elon Musk’s X activity shows a steady cadence of roughly 13–26 posts per day in early-to-mid May, placing the 40–64 range for the May 18–20 window as the clear market favorite at 53.5 percent. Traders are weighting this outcome heavily because no major product launches, legal appearances, or political flashpoints have surfaced that would push volume higher, while weekend patterns historically keep output moderate. The 65–89 bracket at 25 percent captures the possibility of a busier stretch, yet current momentum favors the lower band unless an unexpected announcement or viral thread materializes before Monday. With the three-day period beginning immediately, the implied probabilities reflect real-time observation of Musk’s established posting rhythm rather than speculation about future spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 54%
65-89 25%
<40 17%
90-114 6%
NEW
$41,725 Vol.
NEW
$41,725 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
17%
40-64
54%
65-89
25%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 54%
65-89 25%
<40 17%
90-114 6%
NEW
$41,725 Vol.
NEW
$41,725 Vol.
May 20, 2026
<40
$2,200 Vol.
17%
40-64
$3,658 Vol.
54%
65-89
$2,680 Vol.
25%
90-114
$5,231 Vol.
6%
115-139
$4,163 Vol.
1%
140-164
$2,591 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,417 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,256 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$6,386 Vol.
<1%
240+
$6,176 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent tracking of Elon Musk’s X activity shows a steady cadence of roughly 13–26 posts per day in early-to-mid May, placing the 40–64 range for the May 18–20 window as the clear market favorite at 53.5 percent. Traders are weighting this outcome heavily because no major product launches, legal appearances, or political flashpoints have surfaced that would push volume higher, while weekend patterns historically keep output moderate. The 65–89 bracket at 25 percent captures the possibility of a busier stretch, yet current momentum favors the lower band unless an unexpected announcement or viral thread materializes before Monday. With the three-day period beginning immediately, the implied probabilities reflect real-time observation of Musk’s established posting rhythm rather than speculation about future spikes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$41,725End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent tracking of Elon Musk’s X activity shows a steady cadence of roughly 13–26 posts per day in early-to-mid May, placing the 40–64 range for the May 18–20 window as the clear market favorite at 53.5 percent. Traders are weighting this outcome heavily because no major product launches, legal appearances, or political flashpoints have surfaced that would push volume higher, while weekend patterns historically keep output moderate. The 65–89 bracket at 25 percent captures the possibility of a busier stretch, yet current momentum favors the lower band unless an unexpected announcement or viral thread materializes before Monday. With the three-day period beginning immediately, the implied probabilities reflect real-time observation of Musk’s established posting rhythm rather than speculation about future spikes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$41,725End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskRecent tracking of Elon Musk’s X activity shows a steady cadence of roughly 13–26 posts per day in early-to-mid May, placing the 40–64 range for the May 18–20 window as the clear market favorite at 53.5 percent. Traders are weighting this outcome heavily because no major product launches, legal appearances, or political flashpoints have surfaced that would push volume higher, while weekend patterns historically keep output moderate. The 65–89 bracket at 25 percent captures the possibility of a busier stretch, yet current momentum favors the lower band unless an unexpected announcement or viral thread materializes before Monday. With the three-day period beginning immediately, the implied probabilities reflect real-time observation of Musk’s established posting rhythm rather than speculation about future spikes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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