Israeli and Lebanese governments reached a US-brokered conditional ceasefire framework in early June 2026 calling for Hezbollah to cease fire and vacate southern zones south of the Litani River, yet Hezbollah immediately rejected the deal and demanded a full Israeli withdrawal as the starting point. Israeli officials have stated forces will remain in established buffer zones to prevent militant rearmament and protect northern communities, with continued operations and restrictions on displaced returns reported through mid-June. Partial pullbacks from some border villages have occurred alongside retention of strategic hilltop positions. These entrenched sequencing disputes, coupled with Hezbollah’s insistence on simultaneous or prior Israeli exit and ongoing low-level violations, have kept trader-implied probabilities for near-term full withdrawal low despite diplomatic activity. UNIFIL’s mandate runs through December 2026, providing limited additional pressure.