Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, marked by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, has repeatedly prompted temporary closures or restrictions on Israeli airspace to mitigate risks from retaliatory attacks. Fresh Israeli operations in early June 2026 led Tehran to close sections of its western airspace and heightened alerts across the region, while airlines reroute flights amid strained diplomatic channels. Israeli authorities have maintained monitoring protocols at Ben-Gurion Airport, with airspace open as of mid-June but subject to rapid security assessments tied to any expansion of hostilities. Resolution of related markets depends on whether further defensive measures or preemptive actions necessitate renewed civilian flight restrictions through the summer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,237,352 Vol.
Jun 14, 2026
June 14
1%
June 15
1%
June 30
7%
$16,237,352 Vol.
June 14
$770,822 Vol.
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June 15
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June 30
$2,348,126 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, marked by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, has repeatedly prompted temporary closures or restrictions on Israeli airspace to mitigate risks from retaliatory attacks. Fresh Israeli operations in early June 2026 led Tehran to close sections of its western airspace and heightened alerts across the region, while airlines reroute flights amid strained diplomatic channels. Israeli authorities have maintained monitoring protocols at Ben-Gurion Airport, with airspace open as of mid-June but subject to rapid security assessments tied to any expansion of hostilities. Resolution of related markets depends on whether further defensive measures or preemptive actions necessitate renewed civilian flight restrictions through the summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 8, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,237,352End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, marked by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, has repeatedly prompted temporary closures or restrictions on Israeli airspace to mitigate risks from retaliatory attacks. Fresh Israeli operations in early June 2026 led Tehran to close sections of its western airspace and heightened alerts across the region, while airlines reroute flights amid strained diplomatic channels. Israeli authorities have maintained monitoring protocols at Ben-Gurion Airport, with airspace open as of mid-June but subject to rapid security assessments tied to any expansion of hostilities. Resolution of related markets depends on whether further defensive measures or preemptive actions necessitate renewed civilian flight restrictions through the summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,237,352End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, marked by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning in late February 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, has repeatedly prompted temporary closures or restrictions on Israeli airspace to mitigate risks from retaliatory attacks. Fresh Israeli operations in early June 2026 led Tehran to close sections of its western airspace and heightened alerts across the region, while airlines reroute flights amid strained diplomatic channels. Israeli authorities have maintained monitoring protocols at Ben-Gurion Airport, with airspace open as of mid-June but subject to rapid security assessments tied to any expansion of hostilities. Resolution of related markets depends on whether further defensive measures or preemptive actions necessitate renewed civilian flight restrictions through the summer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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