Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and de-escalate regional conflicts while postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on zero enrichment and dismantlement of stockpiles exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per the IAEA's February report and April 29 update on unverified Isfahan storage. Tehran officials reiterated on April 15 they will not relinquish enrichment rights for peace, highlighting persistent diplomatic deadlock and verification barriers as key factors lowering yes odds below 30%. Upcoming indirect talks offer slim potential shifts, but historical patterns favor prolonged standoffs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$691,285 Vol.
$691,285 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$691,285 Vol.
$691,285 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and de-escalate regional conflicts while postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on zero enrichment and dismantlement of stockpiles exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per the IAEA's February report and April 29 update on unverified Isfahan storage. Tehran officials reiterated on April 15 they will not relinquish enrichment rights for peace, highlighting persistent diplomatic deadlock and verification barriers as key factors lowering yes odds below 30%. Upcoming indirect talks offer slim potential shifts, but historical patterns favor prolonged standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
Volume
$691,285End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and de-escalate regional conflicts while postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on zero enrichment and dismantlement of stockpiles exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per the IAEA's February report and April 29 update on unverified Isfahan storage. Tehran officials reiterated on April 15 they will not relinquish enrichment rights for peace, highlighting persistent diplomatic deadlock and verification barriers as key factors lowering yes odds below 30%. Upcoming indirect talks offer slim potential shifts, but historical patterns favor prolonged standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$691,285End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 3:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism over Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, driven by stalled US-Iran nuclear negotiations amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait and de-escalate regional conflicts while postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on zero enrichment and dismantlement of stockpiles exceeding 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per the IAEA's February report and April 29 update on unverified Isfahan storage. Tehran officials reiterated on April 15 they will not relinquish enrichment rights for peace, highlighting persistent diplomatic deadlock and verification barriers as key factors lowering yes odds below 30%. Upcoming indirect talks offer slim potential shifts, but historical patterns favor prolonged standoffs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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