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Elections·Primaries

Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner

Ashley Hinson 95.5%

Jim Carlin 2.9%

Joshua Smith <1%

John Berman <1%

Polymarket

$16,286 Vol.

Ashley Hinson 95.5%

Jim Carlin 2.9%

Joshua Smith <1%

John Berman <1%

Polymarket

$16,286 Vol.

Ashley Hinson

$11,574 Vol.

96%

Jim Carlin

$611 Vol.

3%

Joshua Smith

$3,515 Vol.

<1%

John Berman

$586 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Ashley Hinson's 95.5% implied probability in the Iowa Republican U.S. Senate primary stems from her dominant fundraising edge over Jim Carlin and minor candidates Joshua Smith and John Berman, per first-quarter 2026 Federal Election Commission reports, bolstering her incumbency advantage as U.S. Representative from IA-02 amid Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement.** Recent analyses, including New York Times polling trackers, affirm her frontrunner status with no competitive primary surveys emerging in the past month, underscoring trader consensus on her path to the June 2 nomination. While a late scandal, unexpected endorsement for Carlin, or surge in conservative turnout could theoretically challenge this, historical patterns in Iowa GOP primaries favor well-resourced establishment picks, rendering upsets rare.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,286
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 2:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**Ashley Hinson's 95.5% implied probability in the Iowa Republican U.S. Senate primary stems from her dominant fundraising edge over Jim Carlin and minor candidates Joshua Smith and John Berman, per first-quarter 2026 Federal Election Commission reports, bolstering her incumbency advantage as U.S. Representative from IA-02 amid Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement.** Recent analyses, including New York Times polling trackers, affirm her frontrunner status with no competitive primary surveys emerging in the past month, underscoring trader consensus on her path to the June 2 nomination. While a late scandal, unexpected endorsement for Carlin, or surge in conservative turnout could theoretically challenge this, historical patterns in Iowa GOP primaries favor well-resourced establishment picks, rendering upsets rare.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,286
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 2:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley Hinson" at 96%, followed by "Jim Carlin" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $16.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ashley Hinson" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Carlin" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iowa Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.