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Politics·Global Elections

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

icon for How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics·Global Elections

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

19–21 50%

22+ 42.4%

16–18 33.1%

13–15 24%

Polymarket

$11,244 Vol.

19–21 50%

22+ 42.4%

16–18 33.1%

13–15 24%

Polymarket

$11,244 Vol.

<10

$305 Vol.

5%

10–12

$130 Vol.

23%

13–15

$110 Vol.

24%

16–18

$10,399 Vol.

33%

19–21

$50 Vol.

50%

22+

$249 Vol.

42%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Exit polls released April 29 project a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) majority of 70–90 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, fueling trader bets on strong gains for Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which contested 25–27 seats primarily in Malappuram and northern districts. Up from 15 seats in 2021, IUML benefits from minority realignment, anti-incumbency against the two-term Left Democratic Front (LDF) government under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and high 78% turnout signaling voter fatigue. The tight 56.5% vs. 46.9% pricing between 19–21 and 22+ seats reflects varying poll margins and LDF/NDA challenges in overlapping projections, with final counts on May 4 poised to resolve uncertainties amid historical exit poll discrepancies.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$11,244
End Date
Apr 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Exit polls released April 29 project a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) majority of 70–90 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly, fueling trader bets on strong gains for Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which contested 25–27 seats primarily in Malappuram and northern districts. Up from 15 seats in 2021, IUML benefits from minority realignment, anti-incumbency against the two-term Left Democratic Front (LDF) government under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and high 78% turnout signaling voter fatigue. The tight 56.5% vs. 46.9% pricing between 19–21 and 22+ seats reflects varying poll margins and LDF/NDA challenges in overlapping projections, with final counts on May 4 poised to resolve uncertainties amid historical exit poll discrepancies.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$11,244
End Date
Apr 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19–21" at 50%, followed by "22+" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" has generated $11.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is "19–21" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "22+" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.