**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) because no such events have been confirmed through mid-June despite ongoing global monitoring.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data record 47 eruptions year-to-date, yet all remain below VEI 4 thresholds for plume height (>10 km) or ejecta volume, with activity limited to effusive episodes at Kīlauea and smaller explosive events such as Dukono. Modest unrest at monitored systems shows no rapid inflation, deep seismicity, or magmatic recharge capable of rapid escalation. Historical baselines indicate VEI 4+ events occur infrequently—often zero to two per year globally—with the last VEI 6 in 1991. Any shift toward one or more would require new unrest at high-volume stratovolcanoes or under-monitored calderas before year-end, with final resolution tied to March 2027 GVP cumulative figures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
67%
1
20%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$498,131 Vol.
67%
1
$270,864 Vol.
20%
2
$38,832 Vol.
5%
3
$30,748 Vol.
1%
4
$33,045 Vol.
1%
5+
$274,098 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) because no such events have been confirmed through mid-June despite ongoing global monitoring.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data record 47 eruptions year-to-date, yet all remain below VEI 4 thresholds for plume height (>10 km) or ejecta volume, with activity limited to effusive episodes at Kīlauea and smaller explosive events such as Dukono. Modest unrest at monitored systems shows no rapid inflation, deep seismicity, or magmatic recharge capable of rapid escalation. Historical baselines indicate VEI 4+ events occur infrequently—often zero to two per year globally—with the last VEI 6 in 1991. Any shift toward one or more would require new unrest at high-volume stratovolcanoes or under-monitored calderas before year-end, with final resolution tied to March 2027 GVP cumulative figures.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,145,718End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) because no such events have been confirmed through mid-June despite ongoing global monitoring.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data record 47 eruptions year-to-date, yet all remain below VEI 4 thresholds for plume height (>10 km) or ejecta volume, with activity limited to effusive episodes at Kīlauea and smaller explosive events such as Dukono. Modest unrest at monitored systems shows no rapid inflation, deep seismicity, or magmatic recharge capable of rapid escalation. Historical baselines indicate VEI 4+ events occur infrequently—often zero to two per year globally—with the last VEI 6 in 1991. Any shift toward one or more would require new unrest at high-volume stratovolcanoes or under-monitored calderas before year-end, with final resolution tied to March 2027 GVP cumulative figures.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,145,718End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) because no such events have been confirmed through mid-June despite ongoing global monitoring.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data record 47 eruptions year-to-date, yet all remain below VEI 4 thresholds for plume height (>10 km) or ejecta volume, with activity limited to effusive episodes at Kīlauea and smaller explosive events such as Dukono. Modest unrest at monitored systems shows no rapid inflation, deep seismicity, or magmatic recharge capable of rapid escalation. Historical baselines indicate VEI 4+ events occur infrequently—often zero to two per year globally—with the last VEI 6 in 1991. Any shift toward one or more would require new unrest at high-volume stratovolcanoes or under-monitored calderas before year-end, with final resolution tied to March 2027 GVP cumulative figures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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