Traders assign a 66.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026, with one event at 19.5%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through mid-June amid 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 events require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and mark a notable threshold on the logarithmic scale, occurring globally at lower frequency than smaller activity; historical patterns show clusters separated by quiet periods, and 2025 featured only isolated low-end VEI 4 cases. Ongoing monitoring at sites like Kīlauea (effusive episodes) and various Indonesian or Icelandic systems has not produced the sustained high explosivity or plume heights needed to reach this level. With half the year remaining, model consensus on volcanic unrest and the power-law decline in larger events continue to support the market's emphasis on zero or one outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
67%
1
20%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$498,131 Vol.
67%
1
$270,864 Vol.
20%
2
$38,832 Vol.
5%
3
$30,748 Vol.
1%
4
$33,045 Vol.
1%
5+
$274,098 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 66.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026, with one event at 19.5%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through mid-June amid 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 events require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and mark a notable threshold on the logarithmic scale, occurring globally at lower frequency than smaller activity; historical patterns show clusters separated by quiet periods, and 2025 featured only isolated low-end VEI 4 cases. Ongoing monitoring at sites like Kīlauea (effusive episodes) and various Indonesian or Icelandic systems has not produced the sustained high explosivity or plume heights needed to reach this level. With half the year remaining, model consensus on volcanic unrest and the power-law decline in larger events continue to support the market's emphasis on zero or one outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,145,718End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 66.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026, with one event at 19.5%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through mid-June amid 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 events require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and mark a notable threshold on the logarithmic scale, occurring globally at lower frequency than smaller activity; historical patterns show clusters separated by quiet periods, and 2025 featured only isolated low-end VEI 4 cases. Ongoing monitoring at sites like Kīlauea (effusive episodes) and various Indonesian or Icelandic systems has not produced the sustained high explosivity or plume heights needed to reach this level. With half the year remaining, model consensus on volcanic unrest and the power-law decline in larger events continue to support the market's emphasis on zero or one outcome.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,145,718End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 66.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026, with one event at 19.5%, reflecting the absence of any confirmed large explosive events through mid-June amid 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. VEI 4 events require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and mark a notable threshold on the logarithmic scale, occurring globally at lower frequency than smaller activity; historical patterns show clusters separated by quiet periods, and 2025 featured only isolated low-end VEI 4 cases. Ongoing monitoring at sites like Kīlauea (effusive episodes) and various Indonesian or Icelandic systems has not produced the sustained high explosivity or plume heights needed to reach this level. With half the year remaining, model consensus on volcanic unrest and the power-law decline in larger events continue to support the market's emphasis on zero or one outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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