Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) due to their historical rarity—typically occurring once every few years globally—and the absence of confirmed events through mid-June despite 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing activity remains largely effusive or low-VEI explosive, such as lava flows at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin or Vulcanian bursts at Dukono and Fuego, without the sustained high plume heights (>10 km) or ejecta volumes required for VEI 4 on the explosivity index. Modest unrest at monitored systems and no rapid magmatic recharge signals reduce near-term escalation risk, though under-monitored calderas could still produce a late-year surprise. Updated GVP tallies through year-end will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
67%
1
20%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$498,131 Vol.
67%
1
$270,864 Vol.
20%
2
$38,832 Vol.
5%
3
$30,748 Vol.
1%
4
$33,045 Vol.
1%
5+
$274,098 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) due to their historical rarity—typically occurring once every few years globally—and the absence of confirmed events through mid-June despite 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing activity remains largely effusive or low-VEI explosive, such as lava flows at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin or Vulcanian bursts at Dukono and Fuego, without the sustained high plume heights (>10 km) or ejecta volumes required for VEI 4 on the explosivity index. Modest unrest at monitored systems and no rapid magmatic recharge signals reduce near-term escalation risk, though under-monitored calderas could still produce a late-year surprise. Updated GVP tallies through year-end will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,145,718End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) due to their historical rarity—typically occurring once every few years globally—and the absence of confirmed events through mid-June despite 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing activity remains largely effusive or low-VEI explosive, such as lava flows at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin or Vulcanian bursts at Dukono and Fuego, without the sustained high plume heights (>10 km) or ejecta volumes required for VEI 4 on the explosivity index. Modest unrest at monitored systems and no rapid magmatic recharge signals reduce near-term escalation risk, though under-monitored calderas could still produce a late-year surprise. Updated GVP tallies through year-end will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,145,718End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability) due to their historical rarity—typically occurring once every few years globally—and the absence of confirmed events through mid-June despite 47 total eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. Ongoing activity remains largely effusive or low-VEI explosive, such as lava flows at Kīlauea and Great Sitkin or Vulcanian bursts at Dukono and Fuego, without the sustained high plume heights (>10 km) or ejecta volumes required for VEI 4 on the explosivity index. Modest unrest at monitored systems and no rapid magmatic recharge signals reduce near-term escalation risk, though under-monitored calderas could still produce a late-year surprise. Updated GVP tallies through year-end will determine final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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