Trader sentiment favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability through late April 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions to date but none reaching VEI ≥4 thresholds of over 0.1 cubic kilometers ejecta volume. This aligns with historical patterns, where VEI ≥4 events occur roughly every 18 months globally—averaging 0.5–1 annually based on recent years (zero in 2022–2023 and 2025, one in 2024)—amid steady but moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Kilauea, and Fuego per USGS weekly reports. No seismic or deformation signals indicate imminent major explosions, though monitoring continues for restless systems; new GVP updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 53%
1 42%
2 4.8%
3 1.2%
$1,065,293 Vol.
$1,065,293 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
53%
1
42%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 53%
1 42%
2 4.8%
3 1.2%
$1,065,293 Vol.
$1,065,293 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$476,315 Vol.
53%
1
$260,220 Vol.
42%
2
$32,618 Vol.
5%
3
$24,369 Vol.
1%
4
$21,497 Vol.
1%
5+
$250,273 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability through late April 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions to date but none reaching VEI ≥4 thresholds of over 0.1 cubic kilometers ejecta volume. This aligns with historical patterns, where VEI ≥4 events occur roughly every 18 months globally—averaging 0.5–1 annually based on recent years (zero in 2022–2023 and 2025, one in 2024)—amid steady but moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Kilauea, and Fuego per USGS weekly reports. No seismic or deformation signals indicate imminent major explosions, though monitoring continues for restless systems; new GVP updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,065,293End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability through late April 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions to date but none reaching VEI ≥4 thresholds of over 0.1 cubic kilometers ejecta volume. This aligns with historical patterns, where VEI ≥4 events occur roughly every 18 months globally—averaging 0.5–1 annually based on recent years (zero in 2022–2023 and 2025, one in 2024)—amid steady but moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Kilauea, and Fuego per USGS weekly reports. No seismic or deformation signals indicate imminent major explosions, though monitoring continues for restless systems; new GVP updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,065,293End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 52.5% implied probability through late April 2026, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of 47 total eruptions to date but none reaching VEI ≥4 thresholds of over 0.1 cubic kilometers ejecta volume. This aligns with historical patterns, where VEI ≥4 events occur roughly every 18 months globally—averaging 0.5–1 annually based on recent years (zero in 2022–2023 and 2025, one in 2024)—amid steady but moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Kilauea, and Fuego per USGS weekly reports. No seismic or deformation signals indicate imminent major explosions, though monitoring continues for restless systems; new GVP updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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